HomeWorld NewsFive factors that led to decline in China's population

Five factors that led to decline in China's population

Last year's birth rate in China was 6.77 births per 1,000 people, down from a rate of 7.52 births in 2021 and marking the lowest birth rate on record. Meanwhile, China logged its highest death rate since 1974, registering 7.37 deaths per 1,000 people compared with a rate of 7.18 deaths in 2021.

By Akriti Anand  January 19, 2023, 11:47:59 AM IST (Updated)

Once the world's most populous country, China has recorded a significant drop in its population. China's population in 2022 — 1.4118 billion — fell by 850,000 from 2021, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. With this, analysts believe India's population has already taken over China's to take the tag of the most populous country.

China’s concern now is not simply a declining population but also a rapidly ageing population. So, the question arises: what might have led to the decline in China's population? Many factors might have promulgated the country's "demographic crisis". Here's a list of a few:

1: China's one-child policy: China implemented the one-child policy between 1980 and 2015, under which citizens were not allowed to bear more than one child. The "policy was developed and implemented in response to concerns about the social and economic consequences of continued rapid population growth", a journal published in the National Library of MedicineNIH said. China said the policy averted some 400 million births.

Later in 2016, the state allowed two children. This "failed to lead to a sustained upsurge in births," the BBC reported. As per the revised policy released in 2021, Chinese people can now have up to three children. The government has since rolled out a series of stimulus measures to boost population growth. However, the steps so far have done little to arrest the long-term trend, reports said.



The latest policy was aimed at "improving our country's population structure, fulfilling the country's strategy of actively coping with an ageing population and maintaining the advantage, the endowment of human resources", the Xinhua news agency was quoted by a report saying.

But, this soon drew criticism. Hao Zhou, a senior economist at Commerzbank, was quoted by Reuters as saying, "If relaxing the birth policy was effective, the current two-child policy should have proven effective too." He added, "But who wants to have three kids? Young people could have two kids at most. The fundamental issue is living costs are too high, and life pressures are too huge."

2. Birth rate, death rate and ageing population: Last year's birth rate in China was 6.77 births per 1,000 people, down from a rate of 7.52 births in 2021 and marking the lowest birth rate on record. According to the NBS, China registered about 9.56 million new-borns last year, down from 10.62 million in 2021.

China also logged its highest death rate since 1974, registering 7.37 deaths per 1,000 people compared with a rate of 7.18 deaths in 2021. This put the natural growth rate at negative 0.6 per 1,000 people.



Yuan Xin, a professor from the Institute of Population and Development at Nankai University's School of Economics, said in 2022, the negative population growth was the inevitable result of the country's long-term low fertility rate and China's population entering an era of zero growth.

As per the NBS data, around 209.78 million were aged 65 or above, accounting for 14.9 per cent of the total population. Experts warn that by 2050, more than a quarter of the population will be over 65.

With this rate, domestic demographers lament that China will get old before it gets rich, slowing the economy as revenues drop and government debt increases to care for a rapidly ageing population. In simple words - with the ageing population, the pool of young workers is expected to decrease, leading to a drop in the ratio between taxpayers and pensioners.

3. Gender imbalance: The one-child policy and a traditional preference for boys also created a profound gender imbalance. Under this initiative, mothers were often forced to have abortions, many of which were gender-selective abortions due to a historical and cultural preference for families to have boys.

According to Reuters, the latest data shows China with around 722 million males compared to 690 million females. The sex ratio of the total population is 104.69. The imbalance, which is more pronounced in rural areas, has led to fewer families being formed in recent years.

"The fundamental reason why women do not want to have children lies not in themselves, but in the failure of society and men to take up the responsibility of raising children. For women who give birth this leads to a serious decline in their quality of life and spiritual life," posted one netizen with the username Joyful Ned.

4. COVID-19 and Zero-COVID policy: The stringent zero-COVID policy, which was in place for three years, causing further damage to the country's demographic outlook, population experts said. After the policy was abruptly revoked, China started allowing citizens to move freely across the country and international borders. This led to the mass spread of the COVID-19 infection, exposing people without any hybrid immunity to the virus. The fresh outbreak has caused thousands of deaths in the country.

5. Sky-high education costs also put many Chinese off having more than one child or even having any at all. Despite the scrapping of the 'one child policy', the couple were hesitant to bear a child because of limited childcare options as well.

The last time China reported a population decline was in 1961. China conducts a nationwide population census every decade, with the latest being done in 2020. China's total population size peaked in 2022, much earlier than expected, which means the country's population will maintain a negative growth from 2023 or enter an era of negative growth, Cai Fang, former deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said previously.

UN experts see China's population shrinking by 109 million by 2050, more than triple the decline of their previous forecast in 2019. The population size during the early stage of contraction will still be huge.



(With inputs from Reuters and AP)