Assembly elections 2021: Will the BJP gain in Tamil Nadu and Kerala?

Updated : April 05, 2021 01:37 PM IST

Tamil Nadu and Kerala continue to be the final frontier for the BJP as it hopes to make significant gains in the Assembly elections 2021

Tamil Nadu and Kerala go to the polls on April 6 and the votes will be counted on May 2

For long considered primarily a Hindi-heartland party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has made significant inroads over the years into all parts of the country, including the NorthEast. It is in power in Karnataka. It is confident of winning the elections in West Bengal. However, Tamil Nadu and Kerala continue to be the final frontier for the BJP as it hopes to make significant gains in the Assembly elections. Both Tamil Nadu and Kerala go to the polls on April 6 and the votes will be counted on May 2, after all the phases of elections in West Bengal and Assam are completed.

The BJP, which is in power at the Centre, has left no stone unturned in its bid to increase its vote share and the number of seats in the two States; in Kerala, it has one member in the outgoing Assembly, while the best it did in Tamil Nadu was winning four seats in the 2001 elections when it was in alliance with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). This time, the party is a junior partner of the alliance led by the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), which under Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami, hopes to make it a hat trick of wins. The BJP is contesting 20 seats in the 234-member Assembly.

Till recently, the BJP maintained a low-key presence in Tamil Nadu. The party’s national leadership would make that odd appearance during elections, largely letting the local leaders work out the modalities of fighting the polls. All that has changed since 2014, after Narendra Modi led the BJP to a win in the Lok Sabha elections. Now, the party wants to be counted and is demanding a seat at the high table. It appointed L. Murugan, who was vice-chairman of the National Commission of Scheduled Castes, as president of the State unit of the party in March 2020. The party also roped in K. Annamalai, an IPS officer of the Karnataka cadre, who quit the police force and joined the party; he is contesting the polls this time.

Given the strong connection between the world of films and politics, the BJP also welcomed into its fold Khushbu Sundar, a Tamil film heroine. Khushbu started her political journey with the DMK and then switched to the Congress before joining the BJP last October. She is contesting the elections from one of the constituencies in Chennai.

In Kerala, the party has been increasing its vote share over the years without any commensurate increase in the number of seats. The party veteran O. Rajagopal helped it open its account in the Kerala Assembly in the 2016 elections by winning the Nemom seat. This time, the BJP is contesting in more than 130 seats in the 140-member Kerala Assembly. It has roped in ‘Metroman’ E. Sreedharan to join the party and contest from Palakkad.

Apart from increasing its vote share, the BJP hopes to increase its tally substantially, which is a tall order as the Kerala elections are always fought between the CPI (M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).

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Apart from hoping for consolidation of Hindu votes, in both the States the BJP has been assiduously wooing the backward classes and attempting social engineering as it seeks to shed its image of being a party of the forward classes and the upper crest. In fact, the appointment of Murugan as president of the Tamil Nadu unit of the party is an attempt in this direction.

The Dravidian parties, especially the DMK, have been portraying the BJP as a party of the forward castes – read Brahmins – a depiction that is no longer valid. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has tried his best to endear himself to the Tamil people by quoting various Tamil poets on numerous occasions. He has not also missed a chance to talk about the glorious past of the Tamils.

Will all this work for the party?

It may not in the immediate term, but the BJP is clearly playing for the long-term. It realises that the AIADMK does not have a charismatic leader, after the death of J. Jayalalithaa in December 2016, and wants to be the ideological counter to the DMK, which grew on the platform of anti-Brahminism, atheism and a belief in rationalistic principles. The DMK has portrayed itself as the protector of Tamil pride and identity. It continues to use this plank to this day for its election campaign.

The DMK came to power in the State in 1967 riding on the anti-Hindi agitation against the Congress government at the Centre and in the State; it still continues to use Hindi imposition as a bogey, but now the enemy is the BJP, as the Congress has been reduced to an insignificant force in Tamil Nadu.

Apart from Prime Minister Modi himself addressing quite a few election rallies in Tamil Nadu, the BJP brought in Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Textiles Minister Smriti Irani, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and party President J.P. Nadda to address meetings in the State.

Right through the high-decibel campaign, the BJP leaders and its spokespersons have given it back as good as they got, a definite change from the past when the DMK would attack it without any counter. Quite significantly, Union Home Minister Amit Shah remarked during one of his visits to Tamil Nadu that there will be an NDA government in the State after the elections, hinting that the BJP may ask for a place in the government even if the AIADMK were to win on its own steam.

The DMK President, M.K. Stalin, who started off his campaign criticising Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami for his weak leadership, quickly changed tack after he realised that there was no great anti-incumbency feeling in the State. Advised by poll strategist Prashant Kishor and his Indian Political Action Committee (I-PAC), Stalin and the DMK have now shifted strategy to attacking the Prime Minister and the BJP, hoping that will yield it rich dividends. The image that the DMK has created in the minds of its supporters of the BJP is that the latter represents only the Hindi-speaking population, is against cultural diversity, doesn’t much care for Tamil sentiments and is pro-forward class.

Having portrayed the BJP in these colours, the DMK is accusing the AIADMK leadership—Chief Minister Palaniswami and Deputy Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam – of mortgaging the State’s interests for their political survival. How much all this will hold water will be known on May 2 when the counting of votes is taken up.

— N Ramakrishnan is a Chennai-based freelance journalist with over three decades of experience. The views expressed are personal

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Published : April 05, 2021 12:45 PM IST