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November IIP today: Expect a mild rebound

Updated : January 10, 2020 09:25 AM IST

The index of industrial production (IIP) numbers for November are likely to show a  mild recovery as compared to 3.8 percent decline in the previous quarter.

According to CNBC-TV18 poll, the street is working with a figure of  around 0.93 percent and the range is expected to be anywhere between 0.3 to 4 percent in terms of growth.

One of the primary reasons for outlier expectations of 4 percent is because of a lower base. Year on year basis, the IIP number for November 2018 has come in around 0.2 percent. This low base should help in terms of recovery in this November 2019 numbers.

Overall, the lead indicators have also shown some amount of improvement - the core industries declined 1.5 percent in the month of November 2019, but the pace of deceleration slowed from - 5.8 percent decline in the month of October. However, mining continues to be under stress year on year.

The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) too showed an improvement in November to 51.2 percent versus 50.6 percent in October. The Motor vehicle production also declined by around 1.4 percent but was better than decline of 26.2 percent seen in the month of October.

So all of the lead indicators for the month of November did show some amount of improvement though they might have been weak on an absolute basis and therefore overall we can expect some amount of improvement in the IIP figures.
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