National Trust Survey conducted by Firstpost and Ipsos show nearly 53 percent of the 34,470 respondents want Narendra Modi to continue as Prime Minister of India.
The survey was conducted at 291 urban wards and 690 villages in 57 socio-cultural regions across 320 — over 60 percent — parliamentary constituencies, spread over 285 districts across 23 states of India.
The objective of the study was to ascertain local political situation and identify influencing trust factors at socio-cultural regions (SCR) and state level, segregated by urban and rural areas and coupled with some diagnostics on how and why people might vote in a certain way.
A total of 34,470 individuals were surveyed from 291 urban wards and 690 villages in 57 SCR covering 320 parliamentary constituencies, spreading in 285 districts across 23 states of India.
Sample collected through survey was then weighted using 2011 national census data to correct for over- and undersampling of certain population sub-groups.
Parikshit Luthra caught up with Surjit Bhalla, chairman, Oxus Investments; GVL Narasimha Rao, spokesperson, BJP; Ghanshyam Tiwari, spokesperson, Samajwadi Party; Manu Sundaram, spokesperson, DMK; Neerja Chowdhury senior journalist; Sandeep Shastri, Pro VC, Jain University and national coordinator of Lokniti; Salman Soz, spokesperson, Congress, Lanka Dinakar, spokesperson, TDP, Praveen Swami and Rahul Verma of Firstpost, to discuss the findings of the survey.
Neerja Chowdhury said: "I think in Assam there has been a shift away from the BJP. This latest Citizenship Act has not gone down very well in the Northeastern states. Now in Kerala it is very interesting, I think the BJP has been gaining ground there in terms of popular vote probably they will get more and they have enchased on the Sabarimala issue appealing to the sentiments of those of have opposed the entry of women of all ages. The Congress also has taken a similar position. Congress has taken the position that the BJP has and therefore that opinion is going to get divided and the left will consolidate its opinion and so it is possible that it will do better this time again."
Salman Soz said, "There are going to be many surveys before the elections, just yesterday there was another one at another television channel and what we are seeing is that despite blanket media coverage for the Prime Minister and how he is held up as the dear leader of this country, I am shocked that some of the opposition members figure in people's memories. I am totally convinced, it is just a matter of a few months but we have work to do, the Congress party is not going to be complacent."
Surjit Bhalla said, “From what I understand, that basically after the state elections the approval rating of Rahul Gandhi went up about 20-23 percentage points and about the same as Prime Minister Narendra Modi. So, the results what this is reflecting is precisely the result of the State Assembly polls."