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Budget 2019: Budget assumptions on indirect tax side seem a bit optimistic, says Nomura India

Updated : February 01, 2019 06:18 PM IST

Bond markets sold off immediately after interim finance minister Piyush Goyal announced that there is going to be extra Rs 20,000 crore worth of borrowing in the current year.

There were other worries for the bond market as well. The tax revenue estimates for the current year has been placed at 19.5 percent whereas year-to-date (YTD), the collections have been barely 11 percent.

Sonal Varma, chief India economist, Nomura India; R Sivakumar, head - fixed income, Axis MF; Upasna Bhardwaj, senior economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Manish Wadhawan, head - fixed income global markets, HSBC India, analysed the Budget 2019, its tax proposal, growth assumptions and estimates for next year.

“I think the budget assumptions on the indirect tax side seem a bit optimistic to us because the underlying assumption seems to be that there will be a pick-up in tax compliance and the target on disinvestment for next year at Rs 90,000 crore also looks aggressive given we have not been able to meet the Rs 80,000 crore target for this particular year," Varma said

"On the revenue side, we do feel that the targets are a bit ambitious. Already on the expenditure side, there is an assumption of a cut in capital expenditure so the overall budget is clearly consumption oriented," he added.
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