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JP Morgan says emerging market currency depreciation due to strong US growth, not trade war

Updated : September 19, 2018 06:08 PM IST

JP Morgan on Wednesday said emerging market currency depreciation is due to strong US growth, not America-China trade war.

Speaking from the sidelines of JP Morgan India Investor Summit, , Pedro Martins Junior, managing director, global research, is of the view that weaknesses in the emerging market currencies are very important alarm bells.

Martins said year to date, the emerging market currencies are down 30 percent.

"The core reasons why those currencies are weak, it's not necessarily trade and it started before that. It's exception strong momentum in US economy -- GDP growth of three percent for this year, earnings per share (EPS) growth in equity growth of 25 percent this year and Fed tightening process," Martins said.

A strong US economic growth will continue to create pressure, he said.

"From a broader emerging markets perspective, investors were long after a very strong performance in 2017. But now we have seen significant outflows on year to date basis, although India is an exception to that," said James Sullivan, head of Asia ex-Japan equity research, to CNBC-TV18.

“So we are starting to see the dynamics lining up for potentially better emerging market performance going forward but overhanging that are issues like trade concerns," he said.

On Indian equity market, Martins said, "India has two good things. One if trade noise escalates, India will be disproportionately less affected than rest of emerging markets. Two, India has very strong base of earnings growth."

"However, some of the headwinds that India might have to face is one election. Two, valuations. Unlike other emerging markets, the correction in Indian equity market has not been much pronounced. Three, could be some external noise like on long-term capital gains," he said.

"We suspect that on relative basis, Indian equity markets could be lagging emerging markets over next two quarters,” Martins added.
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