Sonal Varma, MD and chief India economist, Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities, said the slowdown in consumption has been going on since the fourth quarter of CY18 due to higher oil prices and tightening financial funding.
“Our sense is that we are coming towards the fag end of the consumption slowdown cycle and we do think growth has not yet bottomed out. Most likely we will see consumption numbers bottom out in the April-June quarter because the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deliver rate cuts, while the government has held back on its spending so far. A lot of spending in FY20 is going to be geared towards consumption related expenditure,” Varma said.
However, monsoons and its impact on rural consumption is the only red flag, she said, adding that outside of that expect some stabilisation to marginal pickup in consumption in H2CY19.
With regards to growth, Varma said in the first half of 2019 it is expected to be pretty weak due to the combination of global and domestic factors.