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India to be biggest beneficiary of falling oil prices; dollar likely to peak out soon, say experts

Updated : November 21, 2018 11:02 AM IST

Indian will be the biggest beneficiary of declining oil prices, according to market experts Adrian Mowat and Paul Kitney.

Oil prices tumbled around 7 percent on Tuesday in heavy trading volume, with US crude diving to its lowest level in more than a year.

However, the prices clawed back some of the previous day’s fall on Wednesday, supported by a report of an unexpected drop in US commercial crude inventories as well as record Indian crude imports.

International Brent crude oil futures were at $63.42 per barrel at 0157 GMT, up 89 cents, or 1.4 percent from their last close.

“For India specifically you have got a huge macro tailwind with decline in oil prices," said Adrian Mowat, EM equity strategist, adding that India is a leading market in Asia because it is the one getting biggest benefit from decline in oil prices.

Talking about the roadmap for 2020, Paul Kitney, chief equity strategist of Daiwa Capital Markets, said although in the near-term dollar may remain strong, we are not far away from dollar peak, which might see some emerging market relief rally in 2019. However, the outperformance could come from those Asian markets that have underperformed like China, Korea and Hong Kong and not India, he added.

When asked about the global growth scare, Mowat said he does not see recession in the US at this moment but would see it only if the US Fed were to tighten policy aggressively.

(With inputs from Reuters)
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