For dreamy-eyed bulls on Dalal Street as well as on Mint Street, it may be time to wake up and smell the coffee.
The USD-INR has reversed. I am looking at 75.05 as my minimum anticipation and who knows the slide on rupee that has clearly begun goes unabated all the way to 78 too! It will go to 78 with or without reversing in between from 75!
Now, correlation as an intelligent construct too suffers similarly as all other intelligent things suffer. A market player has to be wise enough to overcome the perils or side-effects of being merely intelligent. On the one hand, Nifty and the USD-INR seem to be very strongly positively correlated for short terms of few quarters and yet on the other hand in the very long run the unabated run in the value of the dollar vs the rupee as well as the runaway bull in equities also exist, together. But for now, the party on both Mint Street and Dalal Street seems to be over and an emphatic reversal is announced more clearly by this USD-INR Chart!Sushil Kedia is the founder of the Market Research firm, the KEDIANOMICS