As exit polls predict a thumping win for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance in the Lok Sabha elections, Udayan Mukherjee of CNBC-TV18 shared his views and outlook on market as well as his expectations of the exit polls' impact on the markets.
“We will probably now move up to the previous top for the Nifty which is 11,800, there might be a little bit of a pause. Some people taking profits and saying let us see the actual results on May 23 but if May 23 is pretty much like the exit polls and there is no reason to believe that it will be dramatically different, it is quite a possibility that we make a new top then and maybe above 12,000. At that point, I think serious long-term investors will have to take stock once again on where prices and valuations have reached, what changes in terms of earnings if anything and then take a studied call but I think next 2-3 days will belong to sentiment and the uncertainty getting out of the way and this relief will play out. Whatever one thinks of fundamentals, you cannot stand in the way of this sentiment. So for the next 72 hours, I think a lot of midcaps beaten down sectors will flex their muscles and breathe freely again,” he said.
Speaking about exit poll’s prediction — of the BJP winning the 2019 elections — coming true, he added, “From a long-term investors’ point of view, this is a no-event. Sitting in a morning like this with the Nifty up 250 points, we should not be using such phrases but I think for a long-term investor, this verdict however thumping it might look and however beautiful the screen might look this morning is an absolute non-event in my eyes. I have a great sense of déjà vu of what happened on that day and exactly the same sectors, same sentiment of what will happen, defence, infra, the question to ask this morning is the same government with the same kind of majority was in place for five years, it is still today. Last week, last month, last year — we were all in the same place. So what has changed today that suddenly you want to relook at earnings and prospects and say now because it is the second coming of what was already in place, everything will change and we should now revisit our business prospects of all these companies. So the call remains the same what it was one week back about the market except that sentiment has changed this morning and technicals have changed with more domestic money expected and that the market will price in correctly over the next 3-4 days", he said
“I believe that in the next few days, the market will have a rally particularly if the May 23 numbers actually hold out the exit poll, you will get a broad-based upward movement in the market, the beginning of which you have already seen over the last couple of days. I don’t know where that takes the Nifty because the sentiment and the momentum is very difficult to call. You could go to 12,000, you could go to 12,500 and at that point, you will have to sit back and say what does the next six months look like and to me the next six months look difficult because this non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) problems is not going away anytime soon and that is creating a lot of complications with demand as you are seeing in the numbers and may see more of in the coming quarters. So it is already fine to talk about political stability and what it may or may not do, the reality on the ground is that we are going through a fundamentally sticky patch and in the middle of that fundamentally sticky patch where you cannot see many major earnings upgrades, you are seeing a pronounced 7-10 percent rally in the market. At some point that rally will stop, people will take a hard look at reality and you will see a pullback,” said Mukherjee.
“A lot of people today will tell you that we are out of the woods and it is time to start a midcap party. I am just injecting a little bit of caution out here saying remember the experiences of the last five years and despite all the optimism of 2014, we have not been able in the last five years to jack up earnings once again. Therefore, when you sit this morning and say but today everything has changed then you will have to say that you are going against what history has taught you over the last five years and in that I advise a bit of caution though it has to be premised by saying that we will have a rally and a powerful broad-based kind of a rally over the next few days which will probably take us to fairly unsustainable kind of valuations given earnings,” added Mukherjee.