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India's 2nd COVID wave likely to peak in mid-May with 4.2 lakh daily infections: IIT Kanpur scientists

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After analysing available data, the trio found that the pandemic has spread intensely across the country. In fact, India's effective reproduction number -- which is the average number of secondary cases per infectious case in a population -- started rising in mid-February and as of April 19, the number stood at 1.37.

Scientists at IIT Kanpur have forecast that India's second COVID-19 wave would peak in mid-May, with the daily infection count exceeding 4.2 lakh. The team said that this could be a scenario provided no new interventions are introduced.
After analysing available data, the trio found that the pandemic has spread intensely across the country. In fact, India's effective reproduction number -- which is the average number of secondary cases per infectious case in a population -- started rising in mid-February and as of April 19, the number stood at 1.37. Among other worst hit countries -- the US and Brazil -- effective reproduction number now stands just above the self-sustaining threshold of 1 while in France and UK, it's below 1.
Looking at states in India, the effective reproduction curve crossed the self-sustaining threshold first in Maharashtra and about a week later in other states. Recently, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh have seen a slight decline in this number, however highly populated states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which were some of the least impacted states during the first wave, are in high growth phase.
To decode the findings, CNBC-TV18 Managing Editor Shereen Bhan spoke to Mahendra Verma, professor at the Department of Physics at IIT Kanpur; Dr Giridhara Babu, professor and head of Lifecourse Epidemiology at PHFI and Sarang Deo, professor of Operations Management at ISB and Executive Director at Max Institute of Healthcare Management.
Watch the video for more.