IOC Q2 results preview: Profit likely to fall 30%

Analysts are expecting a weak set of numbers from Indian Oil Corp (IOC) on Friday following disappointing earnings from its peers Bharat Petrol Corp and Hindustan Petroleum Corp.

• The crude prices were up $1 per bbl on a quarter on quarter basis and around $23 per bbl on a year on year basis. All this will be hurting the margins, also the rupee depreciation is something that will not be good for the company, so in terms of revenue we are expecting a growth of 5.5 percent odd, EBITDA is expected to decline by about 26 percent odd, operating profit margin should be seeing a decline of 270 basis points, all this leading to a profit decline of around 30 percent odd.
• The major number to watch out for are gross refinery margins (GRM), expected at $8 per bbl – that would mean sequential decline of around 21 percent odd and a flat GRM on YoY basis.