Retail and wholesale inflation data for September will be released on Monday. The core consumer price index (CPI) is expected to harden to around 4.1 percent versus 4.3 percent on a month-on-month basis or largely remain sticky.
The hardening is expected on the grounds of higher food prices. Food inflation is expected rise as high as 4.5 percent against 2.9 to 3 percent in August.
Vegetable prices are likely to lead to hardening this time which would be led by onion prices as prices of the vegetable have shot up and its effect will be seen in food inflation as well as in the CPI. Onion has a weight of around 0.6 percent in the headline index itself and its contribution is around 10 percent to the vegetable basket.
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data will be out at noon on Monday. It is not as closely tracked from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) perspective as compared to the CPI but the September WPI data is expected to be a flat number, around 1.09 percent versus 1.08 percent month-on-month.
The range is anywhere between 0.7 and 1.28 percent.
The core WPI estimate is around 0.15 percent so it will probably see some amount of hardening on a month-on-month basis. WPI is also expected to remain largely sticky because of higher food prices; food inflation is estimated to rise over 5 percent for September WPI.