The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to cut key rates in the February monetary policy but may change its stance to neutral, said India Ratings, adding that the rate cut may "actually come in the annual policy statement in the month of April".
“Whether we look at retail inflation or wholesale inflation, both of them are likely to be moderate even in fiscal year 2020 unless and until we see any kind of a spike in the crude prices in the global market, which at the moment looks unlikely ... in fact, in the Indian context if we look at the inflation and the drivers of inflation then there are essentially these two elements, one is the crude and the other is food. Food in any case, looks like it is down and out so much would depend on the crude prices. There also, the outlook is that it is unlikely to flare up to the level that we saw this fiscal. So our view is that it will remain moderate. However, when we look at the wholesale price index (WPI) and the consumer price index (CPI) inflation then our call is that WPI inflation in fiscal year 2019 on an average will be about 4.3 percent whereas the retail inflation will come in at about 3.3 percent,” Sunil Sinha, principal economist at India Ratings, said.