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Q4 FY19 GDP likely to be seen at 6.3%

Updated : May 31, 2019 10:07 AM IST

Fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) expected to come in softer at 6.3 percent. CNBC-TV18’s Latha Venkatesh explains what to expect.

This one is going to be important for one thing – the expectation is 6.3 percent for GDP and 6.1 percent for gross value added (GVA). It could go well below 6 percent. It could get to 5.9 percent.

GVA plus taxes minus subsidies is GDP. So it is possible that GVA may reach a level with a 5 handle and that can be at least sentimentally quite shattering. So one should not write it off. GDP numbers are always lagged but nevertheless, the fiscal deficit is a percentage of that and this is Q4, full-year numbers as well. So it would be at least sentimentally important, symbolically important.

Agriculture is not expected to do too well. Industries should make up a little bit but services is where the street is pinning a little bit of hope. This quarter, it is possible that one of the categories in public administration could be considerably less because the government had run out of its fiscal deficit limits in January itself - possibly February and March, they didn’t spend.
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