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videos | IST

Q2 GDP data today: Economic growth likely to slow down

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The government will reveal the second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data on Friday and estimates show the economic growth will not be as high as 8.2 percent recorded in the first quarter.

The government will reveal the second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data on Friday and estimates show the economic growth will not be as high as 8.2 percent recorded in the first quarter.
Here is what you can expect from the announcement:
  • This GDP data is again going to be backdated information that one is going to work with but nonetheless it is important to give an overview in terms of where we are when it comes to growth.
    • For this time around, the GDP for Q2 is expected to come in at 7.4 percent, this will be a slowdown as compared to 8.2 percent in the last quarter, which was in fact at an eight quarter high.
      • The gross value added (GVA) as well is expected to soften to 7.3 percent versus 8 percent on a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis but on a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis, the growth is expected to continue. So 7.4 percent in an estimate on the GDP compares to 6.3 percent Y-o-Y and compares to 6.1 percent for the GVA on a Y-o-Y basis.
        • The reason for this softness Q-o-Q is expected to be led by slower industry as well as agricultural growth. Services however is expected to see momentum improve on a sequential basis and services is likely to be aided by higher government spending which would be probably public administration. So keep your eye out on that particular figure within the services constituent.
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