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October CPI data due today: Here’s what to expect

Updated : November 13, 2019 09:11 AM IST

We are not expecting any respite coming in for the consumer price index (CPI). Therefore, expect it to harden from 4 percent level. So around 4.38 percent is what the street is working with in terms of a poll versus 4 percent and the core inflation is probably expected to come in a little softer versus 4 percent last month. The range for the CPI is anywhere between 4.1 to 4.9 percent. So do watch out for any sort of deviation from the average.

The CPI is going to be led by higher food prices. Food inflation last month was around 4.7 percent and it is expected to harden to around 6 percent odd and there are some estimates of 6.5 percent on the upside.

Vegetable prices especially onions and tomatoes are expected to contribute to food inflation. Onion and tomatoes have a combined weight of around 1.2 percent in terms of headline inflation.

Overall expect cereals, pulses, fruit sugar also to witness a total uptick. So core inflation probably expected to soften by a few basis points but the overall headline inflation expected to be led higher by food inflation.
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