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May retail inflation, April IIP data due today: What you should watch out for

Updated : June 12, 2019 10:33 AM IST

The government will release key macro economic data — consumer price index (CPI) for May and the industrial production for April, around 5:30pm on Wednesday.

A CNBC-TV18 poll pegs retail inflation at 3.10 percent compared to 2.92 percent in April while the index of industrial production (IIP) for April is seen at 0.32 percent versus minus 0.1 percent in March.

Retail Inflation

Inflation in May is likely to accelerate on the back of the sustained rise in food prices, which constitute nearly half of India's inflation basket. 

April's wholesale price index (WPI) data showed food inflation rising by over 7 percent. The April CPI urban food inflation figures were also higher by about 4 percent. 

If the consensus forecast is met, consumer prices will rise at their fastest pace since October, but would still be lower than the central bank's medium-term target for a 4.0 percent increase for a tenth consecutive month, reported Reuters.

In last week's bi-monthly monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), for the first half of FY20, raised the inflation target to 3-3.1 percent from 2.9-3 percent.

Factory Output

The industrial production in April is likely to see an expansion month-on-month but the growth could be sluggish on a yearly basis.

India's factory activity expanded at its slowest pace in eight months in April as growth in new orders and output dipped as national elections got underway, a private business survey found.

Optimism among manufacturing firms also ebbed in April as they remain concerned about what policies the new government will adopt when it takes office by end-May.

The Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for April was at an eight-month low of 51.8, remaining above the 50-mark threshold that separates growth from contraction for a 21st straight month.

The eight core industries — steel, coal, electricity, cement, refinery production, crude oil, natural gas and fertiliser — comprise 40.27 per cent of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production..
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