The Middle East has been thrown in a fresh turmoil after the United States assassinated top Iran general Qassem Soleimani last week. Mark Mobius of Mobius Capital Partners views on the geopolitical crisis in the region, Indian markets, and Budget 2020.
“The key thing is oil prices. If you see substantial hike, oil prices have already gone up to $70 per barrel and looks like it is going a little higher, this could result in real problems for a lot of countries in Asia particularly which are importing oil. So I think we have to keep an eye on that possibility,” he said.
“At this stage of the game, Iran is pretty desperate to do something about ending the sanctions and they believe that by escalating terrorist attacks they will be able to do that. So I think we can expect more such situations going forward,” he added.
On India, Mobius said, “Long-term we are very positive on India and we believe that with the right price—if prices go down substantially then we would want to add to holdings in India.”
On his Indian budget wishlist, Mobius said: “I would like to see substantially more spending on infrastructure. That is the key—for two reasons, one is that country needs it and good infrastructure will speed up the commerce and trading generally.
"At the same time, it will put more people to work. That is one of the areas where the government can do a lot with infrastructure spending by having more workers work on roads, bridges, tunnels etc.”
On his investment pecking order for 2020, Mobius said:, “India is right up there. China is the largest obviously but India is right behind—India may turn out to be the higher than China going forward but that remains to be seen.”