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    Inflation up, growth slips: Here's what experts make of the CPI and IIP data

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    Inflation up, growth slips: Here's what experts make of the CPI and IIP data

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    Retail inflation hit a 40 month high of 5.5 percent in November as food prices remain elevated. Industrial output also dropped for the third consecutive month in October, but the reading is not as bad as expected. CNBC-TV18 spoke with Aditi Nayar Principal Economist at ICRA, Upasna Bhardwaj Sr. Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, DK Joshi Chief Economist at Crisil and A Prasanna Chief Economist at I-SEC PD to decode the data.

    Retail inflation hit a 40 month high of 5.5 percent in November as food prices remain elevated. Industrial output also dropped for the third consecutive month in October, but the reading is not as bad as expected. CNBC-TV18 spoke with Aditi Nayar Principal Economist at ICRA, Upasna Bhardwaj Sr. Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, DK Joshi Chief Economist at Crisil and A Prasanna Chief Economist at I-SEC PD to decode the data.
    Nayar said, "A lot of the lead indicators are telling us that things are not as bad as October, they are significantly better than the month of October although we are not in great shape as far as growth is concerned in most sectors right now. So, as of now our GDP forecast the last one that we put out is clearly out of date but we do not want to revise it too low based on the October numbers and we are waiting to get a better sense of how November is going to pan out before we take a call on the full-year GDP forecast. My sense is it is going to be somewhere between 5.2 percent to 5.4 percent based on our reading of November as of now."
    Bhardwaj said, "5.5 percent is broadly the extent of the upside that we were looking at. Going ahead the next two readings will be again very crucial especially because the core remains fairly benign, it will be probably close to 3.4-3.5 percent. However because of the telecom tariff hike we know that that number also starts inching higher."
    Joshi said, "We had just revised our GDP number down to 5.1 percent, I think you need to wait for some more information. The pace of deceleration in some of the segments has reduced and I think one should also remember that the second half will also look good partly because of the base effect though the base effect itself looks aspirational right now. I think last year the second half was 6.2 percent but it was lower than the first half, so it is going to create a statistical lift for GDP. However we are sticking to our forecast of 5.1 percent for the full fiscal year."
    Prasanna said, "Inflation at 5.54 percent is not surprising. The consensus was 5.3 percent and we were at 5.33 percent, so I think it is within the margin or error. I do think most of us on the street had factored in that vegetable prices are fairly high and along with it some other food prices also, so I do not think this number is a shocker but the next 1 or 2 numbers can be even more of a shocking number. I think we could easily touch 6 percent if not in December, definitely by January."
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