Is the incipient economic recovery seen in May and June faltering? Macro indicators like IIP and GDP come with a huge lag and these days come with caveats. Looking at some of the lead indicators, Nomura's Business Resumption Index which is based on data such as power consumption, Google Mobility Index, Air Quality Index, and CMIE’s Labour Participation Survey show that business intensity fell from 100 in February to 45 in April. It rose steadily through May and June but has plateaued in the last two weeks of June at around 69- 70 and has actually fallen in the first week of July. So was the recovery in June all about pent-up demand only?
Secondly, anecdotal data shows that rural India has done better. Fertiliser consumption for instance has risen 22 percent year-on-year (YoY) says National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) and tractor sales for Escorts and Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) have jumped in the month of June. However, urban centres like Mumbai, Delhi, Aurangabad, Pune and Chennai have barely opened for business or even shut down after opening for business. So how much does rural India accounts for overall national consumption and can it alone shoulder the burden of stimulating the economy?
To decode the data so far and extrapolate them, CNBC-TV18’s Latha Venkatesh speaks to the author of the Nomura study Aurodeep Nandi; Veteran Economist and Statistician Pronab Sen; and data man Arvind Singhal whose company Technopak collects a wealth of data on city-wise consumption.
Watch the video for the full report