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ICICI Securities expects Q3 GDP at 6.4%, GVA at 6.3%

Updated : February 28, 2019 11:29 AM IST

The third quarter GDP data is likely to be released on Thursday. Abhishek Upadhyay, senior economist, ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, discusses with CNBC-TV18 the key expectations from the numbers.

  • The house is expecting gross value added (GVA) at 6.3 percent and gross domestic Product (GDP) 6.4 percent for the third quarter.

  • As per high-frequency indicators, consumption has been weak but the government too has cut down expenditure, which could be an additional drag.

  • One thing to watch out for would be capex growth, which has so far been resilient and has grown strongly over the last three quarters. The first signs are that the capex growth could stay strong based on indicators like cement production, steel consumption, which have stayed solid over the last quarter, said Upadhyay.

  • However, the uncertainty around these estimates is higher than usual because CSO is expected to revise the quarterly GDP estimates for the last two years and so one is not sure how the base effect would play out, he said.

  • He said, the house expects growth revisions in the previous GDP data of H2FY17 and FY18.
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