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Growth likely to hit pre-COVID levels by mid-2021: Deutsche Bank

Updated : September 24, 2020 11:32 AM IST

While there is an improvement in economic activities sequentially, it is going to be a long road for the economy to hit the pre-COVID levels, believe experts.

According to Kaushik Das, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank, the growth is likely to hit the pre-COVID levels only by mid-2021. “We are looking at the possibility of a real GDP growth contracting by minus 9 percent in July- September compared to minus 24 percent shock that we got in June," said Das in an interview with CNBC-TV18.

Aurodeep Nandi, India economist and Vice President at Nomura Financial Advisory & Securities (India), also says it is going to be a "patchy recovery".

“Consumption sector is doing relatively well, but the industrial sector is incrementally improving. But it is still in a deep negative territory. The investment sector on the other hand is lagging and the export sector has deteriorated from the July levels of normalization," said Nandi.

“Our FY21 number is minus 10.8 percent -- what that means is for the next quarter we expect a growth rate of minus 10.4 year-on-year and in the October - December quarter we are looking at around minus 5.4 percent so we think it is a V but a very recursive V, so it is going to take time for the recovery to recover," added Nandi.

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