With the government set to present the Union Budget on Feb 1, there are many reports on what the fiscal deficit roadmap could be.
Indication after speaking to a large number of experts, economists and some government officials is that 3.7-4 percent could be the number in terms of fiscal slippage for FY20, reports CNBC-TV18.
The target of the government has been to achieve 3.3 percent. However, over the last 6 months the performance of tax revenues and disinvestments have been dismal.
The November tax revenue data by controller general of accounts (CGA) shows that only 46 percent of Rs 16.50 lakh crore net tax revenue target has been achieved. So, to expect the remaining to be achieved in four months would be a very tall order.
With regards to disinvestment as well, only 18 percent of the target has been achieved so far. Although they have some pipeline ready for the last quarter, it would be nowhere near the targeted number of Rs 1,05,00 crore that they have been talking about.
So, the stress not so much from the expenditure side but from the revenue side continues. Keeping this in mind a lot of experts, including some government officials are indicating recalibration of fiscal deficit number to 3.7-4 percent in budget 2020. However, the government at this point in time is trying hard to limit the slippage to 0.2-0.3 percent. The government is also trying to avoid additional market borrowing in the current fiscal, say experts.
These would be the important numbers to watch out for in the budget 2020 because they will have an impact the rolling target for FY21 and FY22.