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Economic Survey 2019: Here's what to expect

Updated : July 04, 2019 04:19 PM IST

Ahead of Modi government's maiden Budget in the second term, an economic survey projecting the state of health of the country's economy and outlining the challenges will be tabled in Parliament at 12 noon on Thursday.

CNBC-TV18’s Latha Venkatesh tells us what one can expect.

The role of the economic survey has evolved. Currently what it has become is almost always the personal views and research output of the Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) in question and the current CEA Krishnamurthy Subramanian, an expert in banking. His Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) was in bank non-performing assets (NPA) resolution, the Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Securities Interest (SARFAESI) Act, the Debts Recovery Tribunals (DRT) act. So one must expect some good ideas on banking.

Usually, CEAs over time become very big advisors for their finance ministers (FM) and then their ideas are usually taken up by the finance ministry. Arvind Subramanian's previous surveys had thrown up that Reserve Bank of India (RBI) capital is too excessive – his argument was it was excessive and now it is known that it became one of the points that the government took over.

Likewise, universal basic income was something which originated in one of his surveys and the farm income transfer is basically a result of the idea being sown by the CEA.

The current survey is the maiden survey of Krishnamurthy Subramanian and Nirmala Sitharaman is only one month into the job. So one cannot expect that there must have been too much of conversation and exchange of ideas, nevertheless, the CEA would have worked with the finance ministry in general. So one should take this survey seriously as a repository of new ideas may be on industrial policy, export policy and certainly most definitely on banking, which he would have discussed with the finance ministry.

It is a trailer to the ideas that will come in future. One should watch for whatever he says on banking since he has personal expertise there and that is a sector which has gone through a lot of evolution and problems.
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