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Dallas Fed expects growth to be weak in Q4, says president Robert Kaplan

Updated : November 27, 2019 08:30 AM IST

Weaker productivity and trade uncertainties are hurting growth, said Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president Robert Kaplan. In a conversation with CNBC's Steve Liesman, he added that only monetary policy won't be sufficient to propel growth.

“We, at the Dallas Fed, think Q4 is going to be weak and we think that we got a good chance to grow at 2 percent next year,” he said.

“One of the reasons the Q4 is going to be weak, we believe is probably a significant inventory adjustment which might be as much as 0.5 percent or more of GDP growth,” added Kaplan.

Talking about inventory adjustment, he said: “People have been destocking and probably the reason they were destocking is there was a lot of pessimism over the last number of months about future growth prospects. So businesses destocked, we will see that show up in the Q4 but we think things will stabilize. We have got a good chance to grow at 2 percent next year.”

According to him, structural issues are still unresolved and ageing workforce and sluggish productivity are the tailwinds.

“We think that because of lack of investment in skills training, education and also sluggish capex that we are seeing and primarily the deglobalisation is also reducing productivity. So we think that the potential GDP growth in United States in Q1-Q3 at 2 percent but it gets worse if we do not make some policy changes; we think over the next 5-10 years it’s going to slowly decline,” Kaplan added.
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