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Chinese slowdown impact: Here's what experts have to say

Updated : March 08, 2019 07:18 PM IST

The Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, China's second most powerful man, next to Xi Jinping, this week warned his country's highest lawmaking body that the country will face a more complicated environment and grave risks and challenges.

Addressing the National People's Congress, he set the country's economic growth at 6 to 6.5 percent this year, just a shade lower than the 6.6 percent it achieved in 2018. He also promised lower taxes and fewer burdens on the private sector.

So, should the world read this warning as an indication of deeper troubles for the Chinese economy or should one be confident that China can deliver a 6 percent plus growth this year? And what does a slightly slowing China mean to the world economy?

To discuss this, CNBC-TV18's Latha Venkatesh, spoke to Kenneth Rogoff, professor of public policy and economics at Harvard University and Jahangir Aziz of JPMorgan.

Rogoff said, "I don't think 6 to 6.5 percent is a reliable number. I was laughing when you said the world wonders if China can deliver 6 to 6.5 percent number. They are going to deliver a 6 to 6.5 percent and it is just not clear if that is a real number. They haven't solved the business cycle, everybody has slowdowns, they are having one and I think it is a very significant one."

"The slowing down of the Chinese economy is part and parcel of rebalancing that this current administration is embarking on. So we aren't surprised that we are now looking at growth targets between 6-6.5 percent. We have somewhere right in the middle of 6.2. We differ, however, of the quarterly trajectory. We do think that in the first quarter you will still continue to see the slowdown and only from the second quarter of 2019, there will be a mild recovery from 5.9 to about 6.3 over the course of the year," Aziz said.
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