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Below normal monsoon is the new normal, says Jatin Singh of Skymet

Updated : April 03, 2019 06:15 PM IST

Below normal monsoon is turning into the new normal now, said Jatin Singh, managing director of Skymet, after the weather forecasting agency predicted below-normal rains in India this year.

In an interview with CNBC-TV18’s Manisha Gupta, Singh said, “"June is not that important, statistically it gives us 17 percent of the total monsoon but significant deficit in July is worrying. July is our richest month when it comes to the monsoon, it is 33 percent of the total monsoon stack and in that, if you take away 9 percent, it is very difficult for it to catch up. Also, this is something that we as a country need to make up our minds about - below normal is quickly now turning into the new normal. The last good monsoon was way back in 2013, it was 106 percent. The normal monsoon that we have had after 2013 was actually in 2016 which was still a negative 3 percent, 2012 was below normal, 2014, 2015 were droughts. 2016 is normal but barely, 2017 was below normal at negative 5 percent, 2018 was almost drought at negative 9 percent. So, we as a country need to huddle and think about what our energy and water strategy and food security strategies are going to be going into the next decade."

"El-Nino has already formed, it is a decaying El-Nino. It was supposed to dissipate earlier but that has not happened. So, we are driven by the El-Nino. 80 percent of El-Nino years are below normal, 60 percent are drought and 0 percent chance of excess. So, when there is an El-Nino you have only a 20 percent chance of normal and above normal or excess. Over the last couple of months the El-Nino has actually flared, it seems that is going to sustain itself going into the monsoon, at least the first couple of months. So, that is not a good sign and we all need to be prepared for it,” he added.
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