The street expects Reliance overall revenue growth in the fourth quarter of FY21 to be up about 23 percent on a quarter on quarter (QoQ) basis. This topline growth will be driven by the oil to chemical (O2C) business.
The other segmental performance contribution to the topline - retail will be about mid-single-digit QoQ growth while Jio will report a decline in their revenues quarter on quarter.
Focus on the margin performance or the operational profits for Reliance and there we are working with 8 percent improvement in the company's consolidated EBITDA. Again a bulk of the growth will be driven by the O2C business where now the company has combined their refining as well as petchem business and they have clubbed it under the O2C brand segment.
The way the Singapore gross refining margins (GRMs) have moved, the expectation is that refining will be the driver of growth.
The profits will be up 13 percent according to our poll.
Here's a segmental breakup:
For the retail business about 6 percent QoQ improvement in revenue as the economy continues to unlock and some improvement in the company's margins with the EBITDA up 10 percent.
For Jio, the key to track will be the subscriber addition because it has been muted for the last couple of quarters and this quarter the interconnect usage charge was removed. So that will have a direct flow on the company's performance for Jio.
The stock has underperformed in 2021 and it is only up about 2 percent and it has still not gone anywhere close to its September highs of Rs 2,365.
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