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BPCL Q1 earnings: Analysts expect growth in revenue but margins, profit likely to fall

Updated : August 09, 2019 08:48 AM IST

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) is set to report its Q1FY20 earnings and the street is not expecting a good set of numbers. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) has surprised on the positive side. However that was not the case with Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL). It will be very interesting to see how the numbers pan out for BPCL.

In terms of numbers, analysts are expecting the numbers to fall on a sequential basis. While there will be revenue growth, but it will not show in the margins.

Margins are expected to come in at 2.8 percent versus 6.5 percent earlier. The profits also are expected to decline by 43 percent.

In the refining segment, reported margins are expected to be flat on a sequential basis at USD 3 per barrel. However, the core gross refining margins (GRMs) are expected to show some growth, 46 percent on a sequential basis.

The inventory losses should range between USD 0.5 per barrel and USD 0.8 per barrel.

Refining throughputs are expected to improve both on a year on year (YoY) and on a sequential basis.

Key things to watch out for:

  • Revenue seen (GU)10.5 percent at Rs 76,468 crore vs Rs 73,991 crore

  • EBITDA seen (RD)42 percent at Rs 2,161 crore vs Rs 4,804 crore

  • OPTG profit margin seen (RD) at 2.8 percent vs 6.5 percent

  • Profit After tax seen (RD)43 percent at Rs 707 crore vs Rs 1,233 crore

  • Reported gross refining margins seen at $3/bbl

  • Core gross refining margins seen at $3.80/bbl

  • Inventory loss seen between $0.50/bbl to $0.80/bbl

  • Refining throughput at 8.7 mmt vs 8.2 mmt QoQ; Vs 7.7 mmt YoY

  • Gross marketing margins seen at Rs 4.20/lt

  • Domestic marketing volumes seen flat at 11.3-11.4 mmt

  • Inventory loss expected at Rs 570 crore
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