How political dynamics are changing ahead of Assam assembly polls

Political equations are stuck anew ahead of the assembly elections in Assam, which is expected to be held in April 2021.

After being in alliance with Hagrama Mohilary-led Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) for nearly five years, this time the BJP is part of the United People's Party Liberal (UPPL) led executive council with Pramod Boro swearing in as Bodoland Council chief.

However, cabinet minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has clarified that the alliance with the BPF in the Assam government will continue until the next Assembly elections.

Results of the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) were announced on December 12, in which no party emerged as clear winner in the 40-member council.

In the assembly, the BPF has 14 MLAs along with three ministers. Though both parties have confirmed that the alliance at the state level will continue, lack of confidence is visible in the existing coalition as both the parties attacked each other during the BTC election campaign.

The saffron party highlighted corruption in the Mohilary administration and the plights of non-Bodo population in the BTC. This is departure from the earlier stance taken by the saffron party. Since the BJP came to power in the state in alliance with the BPF, it has not actively involved itself in BTC politics.

But the equation seems to be changing, as BPF’s main rival UPPL has come to power with the BJP even as the Mohilary-led party emerged as the single-largest party with 17 seats.

The BPF needed only 4 members to reach 21, but it failed to retain power as lone Congress MCLA Sajal Kumar Singha and Mohilary-led party’s MCLA Reo Reoa Narzihary joined BJP and no independent candidate won.

The UPPL bagged 12 seats, BJP and AGP together won 9 seats, and Gana Shakti Party (GSP) led by Kokrajhar MP Naba Kumar Sarania won 1 seat.

BPF is said to be trying to win over some members from the UPPL or the BJP to form the next executive council in the BTC but it looks like a distant dream now. Ahead of the assembly elections in 2021, this might be the semi-final and also an indicator, which way the wind is blowing.

In 2015 BTC elections, BPF bagged 20 council seats, while BJP won only one, All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) won four and rest 15 seats were won by independent candidates. BTC consists of four districts -- Kokrajhar, Chirang, Baksa and Udalguri.