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India FY20 GDP: What World Bank, IMF, ADB, Moody's and S&P forecast

Updated : 2019-10-14 13:59:08

Economists from global firms have lowered India's GDP growth for the fiscal year 2019-2020 after the Reserve Bank of India cut its growth estimates in the monetary policy statement earlier this month. Moreover, an RBI survey showed that the Indian consumers’ confidence in the economy and employment status in the country dropped to a six-year low in September. Here is what economists from Moody's, S&P Global, International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Asian Development Bank said about the Indian economy.

World Bank has lowered India's growth forecast for India in the current fiscal to 6 percent from 7.5 percent, lower than the Reserve Bank of India's latest revised outlook of 6.1 percent. The report said:
World Bank has lowered India's growth forecast for India in the current fiscal to 6 percent from 7.5 percent, lower than the Reserve Bank of India's latest revised outlook of 6.1 percent. The report said: "The remarkable weakness of Indian economic activity during the first half of 2019 is largely driven by external and cyclical factors. However, during this downturn, several structural problems have come to the surface." (Image: Reuters)
The global economy is now in a synchronized slowdown and this widespread deceleration means that growth this year will fall to its lowest rate since the beginning of the decade, said Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund. “In some of the largest emerging market economies, such as India and Brazil, the slowdown is even more pronounced this year, said the newly-appointed managing director. (Image: Reuters)
The global economy is now in a synchronized slowdown and this widespread deceleration means that growth this year will fall to its lowest rate since the beginning of the decade, said Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund. “In some of the largest emerging market economies, such as India and Brazil, the slowdown is even more pronounced this year, said the newly-appointed managing director. (Image: Reuters)
Moody’s Investor Services on October 10 cut its 2019-20 growth forecast for India to 5.8 percent from earlier 6.8 percent, citing a pronounced slowdown due to multiple, domestic and long-lasting factors.
Moody’s Investor Services on October 10 cut its 2019-20 growth forecast for India to 5.8 percent from earlier 6.8 percent, citing a pronounced slowdown due to multiple, domestic and long-lasting factors. "India (Baa2 stable) is experiencing a pronounced slowdown in economic growth which we assess to be partly related to long-lasting factors. Prolonged softer growth would dampen prospects for the government's fiscal consolidation plans and hamper its ability to prevent a rise in the debt burdens. Given India's already weak fiscal position, this would weigh on the sovereign credit profile," it added. (Image: Reuters)
S&P Global Ratings on October 1 downgraded India’s GDP growth projection for the fiscal year 2020 to 6.3 percent from 7.1 percent, citing deeper and more broad-based slowdown than expected. “Growth in India has declined more than expected, owing to soft manufacturing and consumption. However, we expect a rebound toward potential growth of 7 percent next year helped by fiscal stimulus and corporate tax cuts,” said the firm.
S&P Global Ratings on October 1 downgraded India’s GDP growth projection for the fiscal year 2020 to 6.3 percent from 7.1 percent, citing deeper and more broad-based slowdown than expected. “Growth in India has declined more than expected, owing to soft manufacturing and consumption. However, we expect a rebound toward potential growth of 7 percent next year helped by fiscal stimulus and corporate tax cuts,” said the firm.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its outlook for India's GDP growth for the current financial year to 6.5 percent from the previous projection of 7 percent due to domestic reasons such as the pre-election decline in investment and tighter credit conditions.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its outlook for India's GDP growth for the current financial year to 6.5 percent from the previous projection of 7 percent due to domestic reasons such as the pre-election decline in investment and tighter credit conditions. "India is expected to rebound to 7.2 percent growth in fiscal 2020-21 and join most other subregional countries in performing at or near their ADO 2019 growth forecasts for the next year," it said. The Manila-based bank said the contribution of investment in India's growth fell substantially because of subdued bank lending and uncertainty ahead of elections in April-May. (Image: ADB/Facebook)
The Reserve Bank of India cut its real GDP growth forecast for 2019-20 to 6.1 percent from a prior projection of 6.9 percent. The RBI said it expects real GDP growth to recover in the back half of 2019-20 due to a favourable base effect and past monetary policy actions. The central bank, which also sharply trimmed its 2019-20 growth forecast, said that it will maintain its
The Reserve Bank of India cut its real GDP growth forecast for 2019-20 to 6.1 percent from a prior projection of 6.9 percent. The RBI said it expects real GDP growth to recover in the back half of 2019-20 due to a favourable base effect and past monetary policy actions. The central bank, which also sharply trimmed its 2019-20 growth forecast, said that it will maintain its "accommodative" policy stance "as long as it is necessary" to revive growth, and ensure inflation remains within target. (Image: Reuters)
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