The US Federal Reserve's decision to cut the key rate by 25 basis points (bps) will not have any impact on the Indian market, said Arvind Sanger, founder and managing partner of Geosphere Capital Management.
“I don’t think Fed gave anything that gives the global market any strong cues. I think we are in a period where the European Central Bank (ECB) is about to cut rates or do quantitative easing (QE), Japan's central bank is about to do more QE. So I think we are in a period where there is some easing but it is hard to argue that this is a new cycle and that is what basically Jerome Powell said because the economic growth is fine,” said Sanger in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
“India has a more sustained rate cycle coming but India has probably been the worst growth dynamics of any major markets that we look at. So India’s problems are not whether Fed is cutting rates or not, India’s problem is how bad is the economy and when is it going to get up,” he added.
When asked if the Indian market will continue to underperform in the near-term, Sanger said, “Yes, but it is not like the market is a screaming 'buy' just because this is the worst-performing month... maybe domestics have nowhere else to go and money will cycle in and the market at some point will find a level but the economic fundamentals certainly don’t suggest that this market is a screaming buy.”
According to Shane Oliver of AMP Capital Investors, India will do okay but this kind of underperformance could go on for a while.
“It has had a difficult year compared to global markets, which have been a lot stronger. I think there is probably more uncertainty around India than there has been for some time given the issues around taxation and slower economic growth,” he said.