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Trade setup for June 15: Nifty50 manages to defend 15,700 but may not bounce back soon

Trade setup for June 15: Nifty50 manages to defend 15,700 but may not bounce back soon

Trade setup for June 15: Nifty50 manages to defend 15,700 but may not bounce back soon
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By Sandeep Singh  Jun 15, 2022 7:46:04 AM IST (Updated)

Trade setup for Wednesday, June 15: It may be a while before the Nifty50 bounces back, say experts. Here's what the technical charts suggest.

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Indian equity benchmarks finished yet another volatile session in the red, hitting fresh 11-month closing lows. Investors globally remained convinced that a fresh 40-year peak in US inflation will prompt a hawkish Fed to take up more aggressive hikes in COVID-era interest rates, and in turn hamper economic growth.


What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street now?

The Nifty50 has formed a small positive candle on the daily chart with a long upper shadow, according to Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
"There is no evidence of any sharp recovery emerging from near crucial support at 15,700-15,650 levels... There is a higher possibility of filling of the recently formed downside gap around 16,170 levels by next 1-2 weeks," he said.
Bouts of recovery on the cards
The 50-scrip index lacks the conviction to bounce back although select bouts of recovery are not ruled out, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail) at Kotak Securities.
The appears to be consolidating in the 15,700- 15,850 range but the short-term formation remains on the weak side, he said.
Here are key things to know about the market ahead of the June 15 session:
SGX Nifty 
At 7:47 am on Wednesday, Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures — an early indicator of the Nifty index — were down 15 points or 0.1 percent at 15,707, suggesting a muted start ahead on Dalal Street. Earlier in the day, they dropped as much as 29.5 points.
Global markets
Equities in other Asian markets saw mixed moves on Wednesday as investors awaited the outcome of a key Fed policy meeting due later in the day. MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.2 percent in early hours.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 0.7 percent, China's Shanghai Composite up 0.5 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 0.9 percent.
S&P 500 futures were up half a percent. On Tuesday, Wall Street indices were also a mixed bag, with the S&P 500 declining 0.4 percent. The Dow Jones fell 0.5 percent and the tech stocks-heavy Nasdaq Composite eked out a gain of 0.2 percent. 
What to expect on Dalal Street
HDFC Securities' Shetti sees chances of one more leg down to 15,600-15,500 levels in the Nifty50 before any significant bounce from the lows, with immediate resistance at 15,850.
Important levels to track
The Nifty50 is almost nine percent below its long-term simple moving averages in a bearish signal.
Period (No. of sessions)Simple moving average
516,108.5
1016,326.4
2016,285.7
5016,718.5
10016,920
20017,257.6
Kotak Securities' Chouhan is of the view that a slide below 15,700 could lead to 15,600-15,550 levels on the index, but a move above the immediate hurdle of 15,850 could open up 15,950-16,000 levels.
FII/DII activity
Call/put open interest
The maximum call open interest is accumulated at the strike price of 16,500, with 1.8 lakh contracts, and the next highest at 16,300, with 1.7 lakh, according to exchange data.
On the other hand, the maximum put open interest is at 15,000, with 1.3 lakh contracts, and 15,500, with more than 89,000.
This suggests immediate resistance at 16,300 and immediate support at the 15,500 mark.
Long build-up
Here are five stocks that saw an increase in open interest as well as price:
StockCurrent OICMPPrice change (%)OI change (%)
VOLTAS2,865,500979.250.76%18.72%
GSPL2,504,100234.151.17%9.10%
COROMANDEL1,711,250934.32.18%3.40%
GODREJPROP4,054,3751,251.850.52%2.93%
TATASTEEL25,444,325946.50.30%2.25%
Long unwinding
StockCurrent OICMPPrice change (%)OI change (%)
NAVINFLUOR326,4753,529.95-0.10%-9.92%
ONGC42,161,350156.55-2.03%-8.75%
UBL1,160,2501,461.90-2.31%-6.61%
IBULHSGFIN32,584,100102-3.18%-5.91%
BOSCHLTD92,45013,835.45-0.45%-2.22%
(Decrease in open interest as well as price)
Short covering
StockCurrent OICMPPrice change (%)OI change (%)
RBLBANK57,277,90088.50.80%-8.69%
NAM-INDIA2,795,200274.23.59%-8.36%
ICICIGI3,759,9751,1462.67%-6.40%
HAVELLS5,715,0001,117.552.48%-6.40%
HAL1,803,1001,8801.46%-6.27%
(Increase in price and decrease in open interest)
Short build-up
StockCurrent OICMPPrice change (%)OI change (%)
CROMPTON3,052,500318-2.99%17.01%
BAJAJ-AUTO2,377,5003,529.70-5.47%12.86%
APOLLOTYRE10,240,000183.9-1.24%7.89%
CHAMBLFERT3,103,500312-2.88%7.06%
LICHSGFIN17,970,000317.1-1.45%6.70%
(Decrease in price and increase in open interest)
52-week high
Only one stock on the BSE 500 - the broadest index on the bourse - reached the milestone: Varun Beverages.
52-week lows
As many as 53 stocks on the BSE 500 hit 52-week lows. Among them were seven Sensex stocks: Asian Paints, the Bajaj twins, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, UltraTech and Wipro.
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