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    Trade setup for July 4: A bounceback on the cards for Nifty50 as the bulls defend 15,700

    Trade setup for July 4: A bounceback on the cards for Nifty50 as the bulls defend 15,700

    Trade setup for July 4: A bounceback on the cards for Nifty50 as the bulls defend 15,700
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    By Sandeep Singh   IST (Updated)

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    Trade setup for Monday, July 4: An upmove is likely in the Nifty, according to experts. Here's what the technical charts suggest.

    Indian equity benchmarks closed lower for a third straight day on Friday, as gains in financial, IT and FMCG stocks were offset by losses in oil & gas shares. Globally, aggressive hikes in pandemic-era interest rates and their impact on economic growth continued to keep investors on the back foot.
    What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street now?
    The Nifty50 has formed a small negative candle on the daily chart with a long lower shadow, suggesting a bottom reversal in the short term, according to Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
    A false downside breakout of a small range at 15,700 is a positive sign, he said.
    Key support at 15,700 
    "If there is no aberration on the global front, we will not be surprised to see the Nifty50 cross 15,900-16,000 this week, for which, banking needs to come to the fore... The extremely well performance of the broader indices towards the fag-end of the last week is an encouraging sign," Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives at Angel One, told CNBCTV18.com.
    He sees strong support at the sacrosanct 15,700 mark followed by by 15,500 this week. "It’s a daunting task for the bulls to get past the sturdy wall around 15,900-16,000," he said.
    Here are key things to know about the market ahead of the July 4 session:
    SGX Nifty
    Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures — an early indicator of the Nifty index — gave up initial gains to decline as much as 56.5 points or 0.4 percent to 15,688 ahead of the opening bell on Dalal Street on Monday.
    Global markets
    Equities in other Asian markets were a mixed bag on Monday as investors on Wall Street were in a long weekend following a bounceback in key indices on Friday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.2 percent at the last count.
    Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.6 percent and China's Shanghai Composite 0.2 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 0.5 percent.
    S&P 500 futures were down 0.7 percent. Wall Street will resume trade on Tuesday, after the main indices jumped around one percent on Friday.
    What to expect on Dalal Street
    HDFC Securities' Shetti believes the 50-script index continues to be in a rangebound short-term trend through Friday's recovery from the lows hints at more upside.
    "A sustainable move only above 15,900-15,950 levels could bring the bulls back into the market, which could possibly pull the Nifty towards levels of 16,200-16,300 quickly, with immediate support at 15,630," he said.
    Important levels to track
    The Nifty50 continues to be about eight percent below its long-term simple moving average.
    Period (No. of sessions)Simple moving average
    Nifty50Sensex
    515,802.753,058.5
    1015,667.252,623.9
    2015,827.353,123.8
    5016,213.754,303
    10016,671.855,803.5
    20017,160.357,508
    FII/DII activity
    Call/put open interest
    The maximum call open interest is accumulated at the strike price of 16,500, with almost 94,000 contracts, and the next highest at 15,800, with 82,000 contracts, according to exchange data. The maximum put open interest is at 15,500, with more than 83,000 contracts, and 15,000, with 82,000.
    This suggests immediate resistance at 15,800 and immediate support at 15,500.
    Long build-up
    Here are five stocks that saw an increase in open interest as well as price:
    StockCurrent OICMPPrice change (%)OI change (%)
    IDEA574,140,0008.551.79%2.09%
    BANKBARODA105,452,10097.850.20%5.69%
    FEDERALBNK73,190,00092.73.63%7.10%
    IDFCFIRSTB251,310,00032.553.50%1.48%
    MANAPPURAM29,274,00088.74.05%11.90%
    Long unwinding
    StockCurrent OICMPPrice change (%)OI change (%)
    VEDL61,361,400213.95-4.29%-2.14%
    NTPC67,146,000141.15-1.19%-1.82%
    BEL25,608,200230.6-1.43%-0.84%
    AUBANK6,526,000578.2-0.34%-2.47%
    INDUSTOWER14,842,800208.95-0.38%-0.49%
    (Decrease in open interest as well as price)
    Short covering
    StockCurrent OICMPPrice change (%)OI change (%)
    PNB204,416,00029.72.41%-2.41%
    AMBUJACEM43,894,800368.051.43%-2.89%
    HDFCBANK58,887,4001,359.851.09%-1.69%
    (Increase in price and decrease in open interest)
    Short build-up
    StockCurrent OICMPPrice change (%)OI change (%)
    ONGC77,215,600130.55-12.41%50.56%
    (Decrease in price and increase in open interest)
    52-week highs
    Five stocks on the BSE 500 — the broadest index on the bourse — touched the milestone: ITC, TVS Motor, Varun Beverages, Jamna Auto and Blue Dart.
    52-week lows
    A total of 16 stocks hit 52-week lows:
    ALKYLAMINEDBLJCHACTHYROCARE
    BAJAJFINSVDEEPAKNINATIONALUMVAIBHAVGBL
    BIOCONHINDZINCNIACLVEDL
    CHAMBLFERTINDIGOPNTSSTARHEALTHWOCKPHARMA
     
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