US President Donald Trump has been impeached in a historic vote by the House and will face a trial in Senate. Richard Harris of Port Shelter Investment spoke at length about the impact this could have on global markets.
He said that Trump's impeachment by US House should be taken as a non-event. “Of course it is causing a lot of sound and light in the markets and in the news but the bottomline is although now Trump has to essentially face a trial in the House, it really falls over in the Senate because the Senate has to have something like two-third of majority in order to convict him, otherwise he will be acquitted,” he added.
“It’s quite obvious and well noted that Senate is going to vote totally along party lines and therefore, there is no way that they will get two-third majority. So, although Trump will have to face trial, he will certainly be acquitted,” said Harris in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
When asked about US-China trade talk, he said, “I am not sure it’s going to change very much, we have basically reached a stalemate. We still don't know if stage I deal has been done or what terms it has been done under."
However, what it does seem is that the US is losing its appetite or certainly President Trump is for more tariffs. I think they are quite happy keeping those on now, quite happy keeping some pressure on China. I think the main trade situation is likely to remain where it is for now with no real solution and no real deal.”
About global markets, Harris said, “Coming into 2020, you have to think we are not going to have the same sort of movements that we have had in 2019. In 2019, we also had liquidity improvements in many central banks, we had interest rates decline in the US – that apparently is not happening. Growth seems to be okay in the US and not at the moment declining very much in Europe. So next year, certainly the first parts of the year is going to be very much steady as we are. I wouldn't necessarily be committing more money to equities but I would probably hang on and see where things are going to go at the end of the first quarter.”
He further said that on a relative basis, India has not performed very well in 2019.
“Speaking as an international investor, I have got holdings in India. I am very happy with them, very content with them and whether I want to commit more money to the market in general is probably the question and if I did, it would be in India but only as part of across the board. I am not necessarily looking at any specific focus on emerging markets at the moment,” Harris mentioned.