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Trader's Diary: Unsettled to take the plunge as banks continue in the line of fire

Trader's Diary: Unsettled to take the plunge as banks continue in the line of fire

Trader's Diary: Unsettled to take the plunge as banks continue in the line of fire
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By Shankar Char  Sept 16, 2020 10:15:24 AM IST (Published)

Despite the close outside the 11300-11500 range, to me, the market appears in a cautious mood. Pharma shone yesterday on increasing talk of a relatively early introduction of a vaccine. Granted that you would need to retain belief in a politician. Yet, to my mind, the time has come to focus on a cure rather than prevention. That boat has sailed already.

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While VIX has moderated significantly, currency moves appear all over the place. The Yuan has surged in the last three days to make a new high while other pairs appear mixed. The rupee is holding a tight range, for now, remittance flows could moderate given the news flow on the crude demand front. The US Fed's meeting coming up might be the next impetus, but so close to the US elections, I'd be surprised if there is any action from them.
Banks continue to be in the line of fire as the moratorium and interest on interest (IoI) issue drags on for another week. By some sources, the IoI quantum is about Rs 30,000-40,000 cr. Can the government or RBI take the hit? Without banks, sustainability becomes a question and that forces me to wait a bit longer, although a bottom-up approach appears to be paying off.
After more clarifications from SEBI last evening as the penalty "moratorium" time limit lapsed, one gets the feeling of "two steps forward, one step back" kind of progress, not a confidence-building exercise, to my mind.
I'm willing to wait to get a better feel of things. Gut seems a bit unsettled to take the plunge just because the level has been breached.
 
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