0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Trade setup for Oct 11: How long before Nifty climbs Mount 18k? Key market cues before Monday’s session

Mini

The bulls are not willing to let loose their firm grip so easily, but the current phase in the market may not be easy to participate in, says Sameet Chavan of Angel One. Here's how the coming session is poised to start on Dalal Street.

Trade setup for Oct 11: How long before Nifty climbs Mount 18k? Key market cues before Monday’s session
The Nifty index hit a record closing high on Friday propelled by IT, oil & gas and PSU banking stocks. The Nifty Bank index gave up most of the day's gains after jumping nearly one percent during the session, limiting the upside in the overall market. The broader market also supported the market, with the smallcap index rising 1.2 percent.
Most analysts said the RBI's policy were along expected lines. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) kicked off the earnings season after market hours that day. 
What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street now?
The 50-scrip index has formed a bullish candle on the weekly chart, and approached a strong hurdle at 179,50 where it is expected to make a double top formation, said Rohit Singre, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.
If Nifty50 manages to cross that level decisively, a move towards 18,300-18,500 levels may be seen in the near term, but if it fails, there may be more consolidation in the overall range of 17,300-18,000, he said. 
Bulls not letting go
Given the recent moves of the market, it is pretty clear that the bulls are not willing to let loose their firm grip so easily, Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives at Angel One, told CNBCTV18.com.
However, the current phase of the market may not be easy to participate in, he added.
Here are key things to know about the market before Monday's session:
SGX Nifty
At 7:39 am on Monday, Nifty futures trading on Singapore Exchange -- an early indicator of NSE's Nifty50 index in India -- were down 24.5 points or 0.1 percent at 17,895, suggesting a muted start ahead on Dalal Street.
Global markets
Asian shares slipped as global inflation angst favoured commodities as a hedge over US equities. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.2 percent. Japan's Nikkei lost 0.5 percent, after shedding 2.5 percent last week.
Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures were both down around 0.5 percent in early Asian trade, as oil prices extended their bull run.
What to expect on Dalal Street
A move above the all-time high could mean the Nifty index may run into another hurdle at 18,000 for some time, said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities. "However, if this is achieved, we could move even higher later on. Market breadth could deteriorate in the near term as the focus could now shifts back to largecap stocks," he said.
Some momentum may continue in the market before the earnings season picks pace, said Rahul Sharma, Co-Founder of Equity99. He expects IT, metal, telecom and chemical stocks to be in focus on Monday.
Key levels to watch out for
Nifty50: Sharma expects strong resistance for the index at 17,950 which needs to be taken outreaching the 18,000 mark. He sees strong support at 17,800, below which the Nifty50 gauge might descend further to 17,675-17,725 levels.
Levels of 17,900-17,950 remain a sturdy wall for the 50-scrip index, with sacrosanct support now at 17,600, said Chavan. "The way we are following the US markets of late, all eyes are on how it moves going ahead," he said.
Bank Nifty: The banking index is expected to meet strong resistance at the 38,100 level, followed by the 38,350-38,500 band, and find support major support at 37,350-37,500, he said.
FII/DII activity
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pulled out a net Rs 64 crore from Indian equities on Friday. Net sales by domestic institutional investors (DIIs) stood at Rs 168.2 crore, exchange data showed.
Call/put open interest
The maximum call open interest is accumulated at the strike price of 18,000, and next at 18,500. On the other hand, the maximum put open interest is at 17,750, followed by 17,700, NSE data shows. This suggests Mount 18,000 as the next immediate hurdle, and support only at 17,700 for now.
Long build-up
Here are five stocks that saw an increase in open interest as well as price, suggesting a build-up of long positions:
SymbolCurrent OICMPPrice change (%)OI change (%)
IDEA92,05,70,00011.50.42
BANKBARODA17,91,62,10089.35.910.3
BHEL11,67,81,00065.653.32.8
INDHOTEL1,83,92,400203.853.814.4
SBIN8,71,33,500461.550.42.6
Long unwinding
SymbolCurrent OICMPPrice change (%)OI change (%)
TATAPOWER12,40,17,750177.75-0.3-2.4
NATIONALUM9,75,29,00096.15-0.7-2.8
ASHOKLEY4,22,05,500135.5-0.4-3.6
NTPC5,27,47,800141.4-1.2-2.8
GAIL4,58,29,300158.55-0.8-2.2
(Decrease in open interest and price)
Short-covering
SymbolCurrent OICMPPrice change (%)OI change (%)
TATAMOTORS9,48,33,750383.451.3-11.1
CNBK7,11,01,800178.501.9-6.7
PNB29,67,20,00040.701.9-1.6
BANDHANBNK1,98,73,800344.74.8-10.8
BHARTIARTL7,04,15,696695.100.1-2.4
(Decrease in open interest and increase in price)
Short build-up
SymbolCurrent OICMPPrice change (%)OI change (%)
FEDERALBNK9,11,40,00085.80-0.14.5
COALINDIA6,28,78,200188.85-1.46
HINDALCO2,75,90,950476-0.79.3
ITC18,31,29,600232.85-0.50.9
HDFCBANK3,46,36,8001,605.85-0.33.4
(Increase in open interest and decrease in price)
52-week highs
TCS, Reliance Industries, HPCL and Tata Motors were among the 40 stocks in the BSE 500 universe that clocked 52-week highs. Tata Investment, Tata Elxsi, Titan, Voltas IRCTC, MCX, Page Industries and Persistent also hit the milestone. 
52-week lows
While no stock in the broadest index on the bourse hit a 52-week low, Trescon was among the 11 other scrips that hit the trough.
Volatility gauge
NSE's India VIX index — which measures the expectation of volatility in the near term — eased 3.1 percent to 15.65 on Friday -- its lowest closing level since September 17.
next story