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Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking
Markets traded under pressure and lost over half a percent, pressurised by weak global cues. The possibility of the US Fed’s stimulus tapering would start as early as this year spooked the markets across the globe including ours. Besides, participants also took note of a sharp rise in global COVID cases, adding to the pressure. We may see a further slide next week and the Nifty may test level closer to 16,200. In case of a rebound, 16,550-16,700 zone would act as hurdles. Considering the scenario, we suggest maintaining positions on both sides and prefer index majors over the others.
Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities
The short term uptrend of Nifty seems to have reversed and one may expect some more weakness in the coming sessions. The next lower area of 16,250-16,300 levels could offer support for the market in the early next week and the market could bounce back from the lows by next week. On the higher side, intraday resistance is placed at 16,500-16,550 levels.
Gaurang Somaiyaa, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Rupee fell in the opening session as the dollar rose sharply against the US dollar after the release of FOMC meeting minutes that showed Fed members largely expect that later this year they will reduce the central bank's emergency monthly purchases. The minutes also magnified the importance of the next few monthly jobs reports, with solid gains needed to meet the Fed's expectations and show the virus has not begun to again slow the economy. Today, volatility for the dollar could remain low as no major economic data is scheduled to be released from the US. We expect the USDINR (Spot) to trade sideways with a positive bias and quote in the range of 74.05 and 74.50.
Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research, Kotak Securities
After witnessing a splendid rally that continued in the first two sessions of the week, markets have come under profit-taking thereafter amid worries of stretched valuations and lack of fresh positive triggers. Technically, the Nifty has formed a shooting star kind of reversal formation and at the same time momentum indicators also suggest a temporary overbought situation. However, the medium-term texture remains bullish and any meaningful short-term correction would be an opportunity to enter into the long side. On the downside, 16,350 and 20 day SMA or 16,200 would be the key support zone. On the other hand, the 16,600/16,665 level could act as an immediate hurdle for the index. If the index slips below the 16,200 level or 20 day SMA, the medium-term uptrend could be vulnerable.
Sugandha Sachdeva, VP- Commodity & Currency Research, Religare Broking
It's the broad strength in the greenback towards a nine-month high that's pressurizing the Indian rupee in the current scenario. The dollar index is on a tear as the US Fed readies to suck out massive pandemic-era liquidity from the markets. Albeit, with the domestic equities continuing into uncharted territory, scaling towards record highs recently, and a slide in crude oil prices from multi-year highs, the Indian rupee has been cushioned. The rupee has been gravitating in a narrow range, but fears that Delta coronavirus variant could stall global economic recovery, and the Fed's continued communication to the markets that tapering is coming are the key variables leading to some risk-off sentiments in the markets.
We see the 74.70 mark as near-term support for the domestic currency and markets would closely eye Fed Chair's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium later in the month for any tapering signal, that shall provide further cues for the Indian rupee going forward.
Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities
Nifty snapped a two-week winning streak and ended lower by 0.48 percent. In the process it formed a doji like pattern on weekly charts suggesting indecision at higher levels. Over the week, FMCG and IT were the main gainers while Metals, Media, PSU Bank and Realty lost the most. Global worries (Fed withdrawing stimulus, Delta Variant spread, Slowing global growth and China’s regulatory tightening) are impacting sentiments of investors in India. The broader market rally seems to be fizzling out. Nifty could remain in the 16,540-16,280 band for the better part of the coming week.
Mohit Nigam, Head - PMS, Hem Securities
India's key equity benchmarks nosedived amid global selling pressure considering Fed tapering and delta variant concerns. European markets began the day on a flat note but trade lower as the day passes whereas Dow Futures are also trading lower today. An increase in coronavirus in some countries, signs of Chinese economic weakness and the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan are also keeping investors in a worrisome state. On the technical front, 16,300 and 16,750 are immediate support and resistance in Nifty50.
Sachin Gupta, AVP, Research, Choice Broking
Technically, the Nifty index has confirmed a breakdown of the Dark Cloud Cover Candlestick pattern, which indicates some correction in the counter. A momentum indicator turned lower from the overbought zone while Stochastic has suggested negative crossover. However, on the four hourly charts, the index has settled above 21-EMA, which acts as immediate support for the counter. At present, the Nifty index is finding the key resistance at 16,700 levels while immediate support is at 16,250 levels.
Ashis Biswas, Head of Technical Research at CapitalVia Global Research
The market shows that it is going to be crucial for the short-term market scenario to sustain above the 16,500 Nifty50 Index level. Early signs have been observed of reversal in the market with deviation occurring in Nifty50, Nifty mid-cap, and Nifty small-cap hence, the traders are advised to refrain from building a new buying position until we see further improvement in the market breadth. If the market is unable to sustain the level of 16,500, the market can witness lower levels of 16,350.
Market This Week | Here’s how the market performed this week
-Market Snaps 2-week Gaining Streak; Sensex Down 0.2% & Nifty 0.5%
-Nifty Bank Falls Over 3% & Midcap Index Nearly 2%
-Except FMCG & IT, All Sectoral Indices Post Negative Returns
-Nifty Realty, PSU Bank & Metal Indices 6-9% This Week
-3-3 Nifty Stocks Give Negative Returns; Hindalco, JSW, TaMo & UPL Top Losers
-HUL, Britannia, Bajaj Fin, Nestle, Bajaj Finserv & Tata Cons Top Nifty Losers
Market At Close | Here are the highlights of today’s trading session
-Market Closes In The Red Following Weak Global Cues; Financials, Metals Worst Hit
-Volatility Index Surges 8% As US Fed’s Taper Hint Hits Risk Appetite
-Metals See A Sharp Fall Tracking Weak Prices On LME; Nifty Metal Down Over 6%
-Sensex Slips 308 Points To 55,321 & Nifty 118 Points To 16,451
-Nifty Bank Falls 521 Points To 35,034 & Midcap Index 552 Points To 27,125
-Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Hindalco, UPL, Tata Motors & SBI Are Top Nifty Losers
-Tata Steel Falls Over 8%, The Biggest One-day Fall In 5 Months
-FMCGs Gain In A Weak Trading Session With Most Stocks At Record Highs
-Top 4 Nifty Gainers (HUL, Britannia, Asian Paints & Nestle) Are From FMCG Space
-Eicher Ends Higher On Co’s Plan Of Resolving MD Reappointment Issue By Next Wk
-Mindtree, Marico, Godrej Cons, Dabur & Pidilite Gain The Most Amongst Midcaps
-Vedanta’s Downmove Continues Following HZL’s Bd Meet Deferment, Down 19% This Wk
-Bharti Airtel Fails To Hold Opening Gains, Closes 3% Off Highs, Voda Idea Down 7% Today
-Market Breadth Favours Declines; Advance-Decline Ratio At 1:5