GDP data LIVE updates: Indian economy grew -7.3 percent in the fiscal year 2020-21, the provisional full-year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data released by the government showed on Monday. In February, the Centre had pegged real GDP to shrink eight percent in FY21. A CNBC-TV18 poll had estimated the GDP at -7.5 percent. The National Statistical Office (NSO) released the GDP growth estimates for the fourth quarter (January-March) 2020-21, as well as the provisional annual estimates for the year 2020-21.
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India FY21 GDP at -7.3%; Q4FY21 GDP at 1.6%
Indian economy grew -7.3 percent in the fiscal year 2020-21, the provisional full-year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data released by the government showed on Monday. In February, the Centre had pegged real GDP to shrink eight percent in FY21. A CNBC-TV18 poll had estimated the GDP at -7.5 percent. The National Statistical Office (NSO) released the GDP growth estimates for the fourth quarter (January-March) 2020-21, as well as the provisional annual estimates for the year 2020-21. Indian economy had recorded an 11-year low GDP growth rate of four percent in 2019-20, down from the previous 6.5 percent.
FY21 #GVA at -6.2% Vs CNBC-TV18 poll of -6.35%
FY21 GDP stands at -7.3%
Fiscal deficit for 2020-21 at 9.3 pc of GDP: CGA
The fiscal deficit for 2020-21 was at 9.3 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), lower than 9.5 percent estimated by the Finance Ministry in the revised Budget estimates, according to the CGA data. In absolute terms, the fiscal deficit works out to be Rs 18,21,461 crore. For this financial year, the government had initially pegged the fiscal deficit at Rs 7.96 lakh crore or 3.5 percent of the GDP in the budget presented in February 2020. The government in the revised estimates in the Budget for 2021-22 forecast a higher fiscal deficit of 9.5 percent of the GDP or Rs 18,48,655 crore for the fiscal ended in March due to a rise in expenditure on account of the outbreak of COVID-19 and moderation in revenue during this fiscal year. The fiscal deficit had soared to a high of 4.6 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2019-20, mainly due to poor revenue realization.
Fiscal deficit at 9.3% of GDP in 2020-21, down from revised estimate of 9.5%: Govt data
Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities
Indian benchmark equity indices continued their uptrend on May 31 with the Nifty hitting a fresh record high ahead of the Q4 GDP data due for release this evening. Nifty rose for the seventh consecutive session reaching and closing at fresh record highs. It has closed the month of May with a 6.5 percent gain almost matching the February gains. The contribution to this rise was broad-based on May 31. The overall advance-decline ratio was also mildly positive. 15,635 is the next resistance for the Nifty while 154,70 is the support.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking
Markets started the week on a firm note and gained nearly a percent, in continuation to the prevailing trend. Markets will react to the GDP data in early trade on Tuesday i.e. June 1. Besides, participants would keep a close watch on auto sales figures. Meanwhile, the last leg of earnings season is also expected to induce stock-specific volatility. Some states have announced relaxation in restrictions and we expect further easing in the coming weeks. Amid all this, we reiterate our bullish yet cautious stance on markets and suggest aligning the positions according to the prevailing uptrend.
Manish Shah, founder Niftytriggers.com
Nifty closed the day sharply higher. The range of the daily candle was wider than the range of previous days and the candle closed at the top of the range. This is a classic long green candle and it points out the fact that bulls are in full control of the market. Nifty has pierced the previous swing high and this is a major trend continuation pattern. The quality of the breakout is very good and signals higher levels in days to come. The momentum indicators are showing a positive development. MACD is in a buy mode and RSI has moved above 60. ADX has now begun to slope upwards. Fib expansion series point out towards a rally to 15,775 in the short term. We are not ruling out short term corrective decline in the market as Nifty has is rallying for several days. Any drop to 15,450-15,500 is a buying level. June could be the best month for Nifty.
Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments
We have successfully achieved the 15,600 target and the index is all set to approach its next target of 15,900. There could be a pause or bouts of profit booking in the interim but that should be utilized to accumulate long positions for higher targets. As long as the market closes above the 15,300 level, the trend remains bullish and opportunities to buy on corrections should be maximized.
Market At Close | Aurobindo Pharma falls 2% on lower-than-estimated earnings.
Market At Close | Market breadth favours advances; advance-decline ratio at 4:5.
Market At Close | Nifty records closing high for 3rd straight session. Sensex, Nifty & Nifty Bank gain 1% each, Midcap index underperforms.
Rupee At Close | The Indian rupee erased intraday gains to end near the day's low at 72.62 per dollar. The local currency opened higher at 72.39 per dollar against Friday's close of 72.43 and traded in the range of 72.34-72.65.
Market At Close | Here are the highlights from today's market session
- Nifty Records Closing High For 3rd Straight Session
- Sensex, Nifty & Nifty Bank Gain 1% Each, Midcap Index Underperforms
- Reliance Top Contributor For 2nd Straight Day, Lifts Nifty By 44 Points
- ICICI Bank Contributes Over 50% To Nifty Bank, Lift The Index By 260 Points
- Sensex Rises 515 Points To 51,937 & Nifty 147 Points To 15,583
- Nifty Bank Gains 385 Points To 35,527 & Midcap Index 80 Points To 25,775
- Market Breadth Favours Advances; Advance-Decline Ratio At 4:5
- Metal Stocks Rise On MS Report Of Price Hike; JSW Steel Up 3%, Tata Steel Up 2%
- M&M Slips Over 4% As Company Announces Higher Capex Plan
- Divi’s Moves Nearly 2% Higher On A Strong Set Of Q4 Earnings
- RIL Up 10% In Two Sessions Ahead Of Payment For First Call Of Rights Issue
- ITC Closes With A gain Over 1% Ahead of Q4 Earnings; Rev Seen Up 125 YoY
- Aurobindo Pharma Falls 2% On Lower-than-estimated Earnings
- Manappuram & Muthoot Fin Continue To Gain On Rising Gold Prices
- PNB HSG Fin Hits Upper Circuit On Carlyle-grp Invsts & Becoming Promoter
Closing Bell | The Indian equity benchmark indices rallied ended a percent higher Monday led by strong gains in metals, FMCG and financial stocks. Rally in index heavyweights lifted Nifty to an all-time high level. The Sensex rallied 514.56 points, or 1.00 percent, to close at 51,937.44, while the Nifty ended 147.15 points, or 0.95 percent higher at 15,582.80. Midcap and smallcap indices supported the market gains.
Among sectors, Nifty Metal rallied the most over 2 percent followed by Nifty Private Bank, Nifty FMCG, Nifty Financial Services and Nifty Realty that gained over 1 percent each. Selling was seen in PSU Bank, auto and media sectors. On the Nifty50, JSW Steel, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel and Tata Steel were the top gainers, while M&M, Adani Ports & SEZ, HDFC Life, IOC and IndusInd Bank led the losses.
Market Watch: Sudip Bandopadhyay, Group Chairman, Inditrade Capital
On ITC: ITC can be picked up at current levels. Performance has been good. Pretty much everything is positive except the fact that the other businesses have not been performing well. We will have to wait and watch but one year hold based on dividend yield and current valuation looks good.
On M&M: If the price keeps moving around Rs 750-800 levels, I should be looking at buying Mahindra and Mahindra. It is a good buy. Tractors business should continue to do well.
Expect further headroom for increasing capacity utilisations: Deepak Fertilisers
Deepak Fertilisers expects further headroom for increasing capacity utilisations, Sailesh C Mehta, chairman and managing director (CMD), told CNBC-TV18. “We have invested a lot of time and energy in strong systems and processes which are going to pan out in terms of robustness in terms of delivering performance. Therefore, we are seeing capacities, which were hovering around 80-85 percent odd, we have a good headroom for further upsides in the current year,” Mehta said. On business, he said, “Positive government policies including hike in the fertiliser fixed subsidies that was recently announced, is going to take care of the cost hikes that have happened.” Watch here.
Market Watch: Shibani Sircar Kurian Sr Exec VP & Hd-Eq Research Kotak Mahindra AMC
We continue to hold domestic cyclicals in our portfolio. We believe that while there has been some sort of disruption or delay because of the COVID wave, but the overall thesis remains intact. Therefore our exposure to sectors such as industrials, capital goods and cement and even some of the larger banks remains.
Market Watch: Sanjiv Bhasin, Director, IIFL Securities
On Reliance Industries: Reliance and Bharti Airtel will be the stars of June. After a 10 percent rally, we could see a profit booking. We were very confident from May 1 that by the first week of June, we will be at new highs. RIL has clearly been a big performer in the last two days and now the market is waking up to the fact that petchem margins are at 10-month highs.
On Metals: It is a very volatile space. I would advise you to wait for the quarterly numbers. The second half of June can be very volatile as far as China and metal prices go. If you are a little bit of dare, you can go ahead. Caution is definitely on the cards and I would not wholeheartedly subscribe to buying a new high.
On Insurance: Insurance is the space to be, private insurance. You have seen the likes of ICICI and HDFC, so I want to be in the market but I am going to be playing this through bond yields and insurance. Any rise in yields means insurance will be a very good spot. So both my top picks are HDFC Life and ICICI – they have been huge underperformers in the last two months. But I think it is a pedigree stock.
Along with that, I am very bullish on Godrej Properties and Godrej Consumer.
Expect improvement in credit cost; recoveries to be better in FY22 versus FY21, says Bank of Baroda
Bank of Baroda has posted its Q4FY21 earnings. The slippages have declined and asset quality has improved this quarter. Further, the bank's board has approved fundraising of Rs 5,000 crore. Sanjiv Chadha, MD and CEO, Bank of Baroda discussed the performance. “We should be seeing further improvement in credit cost and that is why we are optimistic about the coming year,” he said in an interview with CNBC-TV18. He expects the recoveries to be better in FY22 versus FY21. “Our estimate is that the recoveries should be better this year compared to the last year,” he added. Read here.
Yash Gupta Equity Research Associate, Angel Broking
Aurobindo pharma reported a slightly weak set of numbers. Export business both Europe and USA geography has not performed as expected while on API front the company has done better than export business. EBITDA margins seem to be under pressure, the company reported EBITDA margins of 21.2% down by 100 bps, Overall reported numbers are slightly lower than the expectation on all fronts.
Steel price hike: Morgan Stanley positive on JSW Steel, Tata Steel, here's why
Morgan Stanley believes that steel prices are likely to spike in the first week of June across various products. The price of hot rolled coil (HRC) is likely to increase by Rs 3,250 per tonne while cold rolled coil’s (CRC’s) price is expected to be anything between Rs 5,000 per tonne and Rs 10,000 per tonne. Meanwhile, long steel product prices are likely to remain unchanged since there are no construction activities underway. Morgan Stanley believes that post this price hike, the premium at which steel is imported will reduce to around 5 percent in comparison to domestic steel. If this price increase holds, it could have a positive rub-off for the next few quarters and earnings are likely to revise upwards, the brokerage house added. Morgan Stanley is also positive on JSW Steel and Tata Steel. Watch here.
Navneet Damani, VP – Commodities Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Gold prices traded higher, hovering around the key $1,900-level after US consumer prices were reported better than expected in April hence supporting the metal as an inflation hedge. In this data-heavy week, market participants today will focus on GDP data on the domestic front. The focus will also be on the manufacturing and Service PMI data from major economies and US non-farm payroll data scheduled this later week. The broader range on COMEX could be between $1,898-1,925 and on the domestic front, prices could hover in the range of Rs 49,100- 49,630.