In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Sushil Kedia Founder of Kedianomics, shared his reading and outlook on markets, specific stocks and sectors.
Kedia said, "After the budget the kind of crash we saw and everybody got gung-ho that the 2000-point move down has begun. The kind of whiplash that bears faced that time, larger than that whiplash can be faced by bears right away. So it is too late for anybody to add new short positions and it is definitely little early to say that the worst is over. If you are going to trade small and keep your trailing stop losses, the worst is not yet over but we are very close to it."
"On the long term weekly chart of the Nifty, if you see the bottoms connected of the last several lows in the last three years, that area is slightly under 10164 but that is academic, you can always draw these lines slightly differently also and 9900 can be another number. So, broadly speaking let us ignore levels but more importantly if we look at leads and lags and certain sectors that have been leading this fall and certain stocks within the sectors, so may be stock specific some amount of very humble shopping can be done by delivery investors."
Stock specific, when asked about Hindalco he said, "Even though it has broken our long term pattern formation, when I compare this with the copper chart, last time copper from the low of 2016 to the high of 2018 went up by about 50 percent and Hindalco went up by 4.5 times. So I am not saying that Hindalco is right away going to double, but I feel reasonably secure that if one can take 5-10 percent pain on a delivery position, on the next rebound in say next 3 months, Hindalco bouncing by 50 percent does not look audacious to me. And this might be the final bottom that Hindalco becomes a doubler from here. So, amongst the metals, Hindalco is leading the way down, it is overstretched."
On crude he said, "It has come to the lower end of the last 10-years trading range and we are waiting for it to break below that range. It is going to be little early for me to stick my neck out but having got it right so far, I do not want to over leverage my gains but there are chances which I will confirm may be in next 2 weeks that crude may actually get into a 4-5 year kind of regime that it will not go up beyond USD 35 per barrel on the light crude. So we will wait for those confirmations happen. If that happens, and by that time if BPCL is already close to Rs 500, I might go and renew my big buy call on BPCL but right now even for a trading rebounce the entire oil and gas pack led by BPCL, HPCL, even a Mahanagar Gas, that entire complex looks like a safe place to start pushing in some of your spare cash into."
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