Equity markets corrected for the third consecutive month in August on the back of concerns of a slowdown in the domestic and global economy. The Nifty50 fell 0.9 percent in August, after a sharp 5.7 percent decline in July. Meanwhile, broader markets also remained lacklustre with the Nifty Midcap100 losing 1.7 percent and SmallCap100 down 1.4 percent.
In a report, Motilal Oswal pointed out that continued
economic slowdown, as manifested in the recent GDP numbers, clearly showed a challenging grind ahead for the long-awaited recovery in earnings. Government measures have not really improved sentiment as yet, even though it augurs well from liquidity viewpoint, it added.
Given the underlying weak economic momentum and expectation of earnings downgrade ahead, the brokerage continues preferring large-caps with strong earnings visibility and defensive orientation. They believe that the Nifty is still expensive at 19-20x FY20E earnings, capping near term upside.
Here are the top investment ideas by Motilal Oswal for September: Axis Bank | Target: Rs 825 | Upside: 24 percent
Axis Bank started its journey as a corporate bank and has made significant progress in building a strong retail franchise as well. A decade ago, corporate/SME segments accounted for around 70 percent of total loans which is 50 percent currently, Motilal Oswal reported.
Over the past few years, the private sector lender has strengthened its liability franchise by building a granular deposit book and has gained market share in deposits, it added. The brokerage believes in the management's focus of delivering long-term sustainable growth, expecting earnings to accelerate from FY20 onwards, driving further re-rating.
Reliance Industries | Target: Rs 1,400 | Upside: 12 percent
RIL, one of India's largest business conglomerates, has interests across energy, petrochemicals, textiles, natural resources, retail, and telecommunications.
The company aims for consumer business to contribute 50 percent of consolidated EBITDA in few years versus 32 percent in FY19, the brokerage said adding that the company targets to become a 'zero net-debt' company in the next 18 months.
In the core segment - refinery throughput is expected to remain at 70 MMT and GRM at 9.9 and 10.5 per barrel for FY20 and FY21, it added.
Marico | Target: Rs 430 | Upside: 10 percent
Marico is the leading player in the Indian hair oil market with brands such as Parachute, Hair&Care, Nihar. Other key brands include Saffola, Mediker, Revive, Livon, Set Wet.
The company aims for volume growth of 8-10 percent and a topline growth of 13-15% (depending on inflation) over the medium term, the company said. It expects continued benign raw material environment over the next 12-15 months. The outlook remains strong with revenue and PAT CAGR of 13 percent and 20 percent over FY19-21, the brokerage added.
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail | Target: Rs 240 | Upside: 26 percent
ABFRL offers secular growth potential with a unique portfolio of established brands and high growth categories like a value-fashion retail chain.
The accelerated pace of store addition under Pantaloons, coupled with strong growth potential in Innerwear, and steady growth in Lifestyle, is likely to drive healthy 13 percent revenue CAGR over FY19-21, the brokerage noted.
Motilal Oswal expects Pantaloons EBITDA margin to improve 150 bps YoY, and Innerwear losses to reduce to Rs 30 crore by FY21 from Rs 85 crore in FY19. It also expects PAT CAGR of 68 percent over FY19-21. This coupled with its healthy free cash flow and return on capital employed (RoCE) profile, should allow ABFRL to garner superior valuations, it added.
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