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Metal stocks recover a little even as sector loses shine for brokerages

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Metal stocks recover a little even as sector loses shine for brokerages

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Metal Share Price: Nifty Metal recovered a little on Tuesday as stocks traded mixed in the late noon session.While APL Apollo gained over 3 percent, Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Limited was up over 2 percent, and Hindustan Copper, SAIL and Vedanta were all trading close to 1 percent higher. However, several brokerages downgraded the sector after the government imposed export duties on iron ore and some steel intermediaries.

Metal stocks recover a little even as sector loses shine for brokerages
A day after metal stocks went into a tailspin, with the sector gauge falling more than 6 percent, Nifty Metal recovered a little on Tuesday as stocks traded mixed in the late noon session.
However, several brokerages downgraded the sector after the government imposed export duties on iron ore and some steel intermediaries.
Brokerage house Centrum believes this move is negative for the sector as it puts a brake on India’s export viability, and India may not capitalise by increasing exports amid supply constraints owing to the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
"This move may not change our numbers much for steel companies in FY24 but should impact valuation multiple, which will lead to a reduction in target prices for companies," said Ashish Kejriwal, research analyst with Centrum.
Assuming Rs 5,000/tonne reduction in steel prices, EBITDA/tonne stands reduced by Rs 1,700-4,200 for companies with Tata’s profitability hitting the most, followed by SAIL, JSPL and JSW, according to Kejriwal.
JSPL is also the biggest exporter of steel, while Tata Steel exports the least amount of steel among private players, according to Centrum's report.
IIFL Securities estimates a sharp 20 percent+ cut to FY23/24 Ebitda for Tata, JSTL and JSPL and a 43 percent cut for SAIL. JSPL and JSTL being non-integrated (for iron ore) are better placed than TATA and SAIL, IIFL said.
"Incorporating 15 percent export duty and partial offset from RM costs, we see a sharp fall in domestic profitability for all domestic producers for FY23/24. Given the focus on controlling inflation, we don’t see these measures being reversed soon," it said.
Here's the revised target price and rating for covered steel names by IIFL: 
Axis Capital, too, believes that the move to impose a duty on iron and steel exports is a massive blow to the Indian steel industry’s export ambitions. While in the near term, this will lead to lower steel prices and margin, in the longer term, this could dissuade the industry from spending on growth capex.
"We cut our EBITDA estimates by 10-30 percent to factor in weaker margins resulting from lower steel realisation and lower exports. While we have cut estimates for TATA, JSTL and JSPL by 10 percent to 20 percent, it is much higher for SAIL at 25-30 percent due to the already thin margin," Axis Capital said.
While APL Apollo gained over 3 percent, Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Limited was up over 2 percent, and Hindustan Copper, SAIL and Vedanta were all trading close to 1 percent higher. Welspun Corp and Jindal Stainless were the biggest laggards on the sector gauge — falling close to 5 percent. Hindalco, Tata Steel, NMDC, JSW Steel all fell between 1 percent and 2 percent.
The government waived customs duty on importing some raw materials, including coking coal and ferronickel, used by the steel industry, a move which will lower the cost for the domestic industry and reduce the prices. Also, to increase domestic availability, the duty on iron ore exports has been raised up to 50 percent, and a few steel intermediaries to 15 percent, according to a notification.
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