Key factors to watch on Dalal Street: Newsflow on the Russia-Ukraine war and India's quarterly GDP reading will be in the spotlight on Dalal Street this week. The Fed Chair's testimony, crude oil rates and FII flows will also be tracked closely.
After geopolitical tensions sent shockwaves across the global markets, newsflow on the Russia-Ukraine war will remain in focus in the holiday-truncated week beginning February 28. Official data on India's GDP for the October-December period along with auto makers' monthly sales reports and updates on the pandemic will also be on investors' radar.
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Market participants will look out for any fluctuations in crude oil prices and trends in FII flows in the four-session week. The Indian market will be shut on Tuesday for Mahashivratri.
The week that was
Last week, the Sensex shed 1,974.5 points or 3.4 percent and the Nifty50 gave up 617.9 points or 3.6 percent, dragged by financial, oil & gas and IT shares.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent investors globally into a panic. Crude oil crossing the $100 a barrel mark in anticipation of reduced supply also dampened market sentiments, though fresh US sanctions that did not target Russia’s oil exports offered a sigh of relief to investors.
Broader markets also tumbled, with the Nifty Midcap 100 index taking a hit of 3.4 percent. The smallcap index fell 5.3 percent, having entered and then escaped bear territory during the week.
Among blue-chips, Bharat Petroleum, UPL, Grasim, HDFC Life, SBI Life, Hero MotoCorp, Indian Oil TCS, Tata Motors and SBI were the top laggards.
|Stock||Weekly change (%)||Stock||Weekly change (%)|
|SBI Life||-8.3||Hero MotoCorp||-7.8|
On the other hand, only four Nifty50 stocks managed to finish the week higher: Kotak Mahindra Bank (1.7 percent), Cipla (1.6 percent), PowerGrid (0.8 percent) and Hindalco (0.8 percent).
The road ahead
"Investors will remain cautious tracking developments on the Russia-Ukraine front. In such a volatile market, a prudent approach is to have a balanced portfolio with a mix of equity, debt, gold and cash," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.
"Although we have seen a sharp recovery from lows, we may not be out of the woods yet as the previous support zone of 16,800-16,850 will now be seen as a hurdle on the pullback. The index gave a breakdown from a descending triangle pattern last," said Ruchit Jain, Lead Research at 5paisa.com.
"In a nutshell, the bulls need to reclaim 16,850 and sustain above that to negate the corrective trend and until then, one should avoid aggressive positions in the market," he said.
On the other hand, he sees 16,480 and then 16,200 as immediate short-term supports for the Nifty.
Here are the key factors and events that are likely to influence Dalal Street in the week starting February 28:
India's GDP numbers for the third quarter of the current financial year are due at 5:30 pm on Monday, February 28.
Auto manufacturers will start to report their monthly sales numbers on March 1.
PMI readings on manufacturing and services in the country are due on Wednesday and Friday respectively.
Foreign fund flows will remain in focus. Last week, foreign institutional investors net withdrew a net Rs 19,843.5 crore from Indian shares, according to provisional exchange data. However, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) made net purchases of Rs 21,511.8 crore from Indian shares.
February is set to be a fifth straight month of FII outflows.
|Company||Ex date||Purpose||Record date|
|Easy Trip Planners||Feb 28||Bonus issue 1:1||Mar 2|
|Glittek Granites||Feb 28||EGM||-|
|Data Infrastructure Trust||Mar 2||Income distribution (InvIT)||Mar 3|
|Facor Alloys||Mar 2||EGM||-|
|Prismx Global Ventures||Mar 2||Rights issue||Mar 3|
|Taneja Aerospace & Aviation||Mar 2||Interim dividend Re 0.5||Mar 3|
|Arshiya||Mar 3||Spin off||Mar 4|
|Containerway International||Mar 3||Stock split from Rs 10 to Rs 5||Mar 5|
|PG Foils||Mar 3||EGM||-|
|Feb 28||Japan industrial production data|
|Mar 1||US manufacturing PMI, US President Joe Biden State of Union Speech||Germany inflation data||China manufacturing PMI|
|Mar 2||US crude oil stockpile data, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testimony, Fed official speech||Germany unemployment data|
|Mar 3||Fed Beige Book, US services and manufacturing PMI, Fed Chair testimony||UK, Germany, France manufacturing and services PMI||China services PMI|
|Mar 4||Fed official speech, US unemployment data|
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