The large corporates, the big industries have been able to withstand the shock and move on, but it is the MSMEs which have accessed the restructuring and moratorium offered by banks. Because RBI has given forbearance about recognition of bad loans, the current NPA picture might actually understate the true situation. When the forbearance is over, I expect the NPA situation to be worse and bank balance sheet to take some hit. So, the worst is still ahead of us.
D Subbarao, Former Governor, RBI
We have had an incredible bull market in India. Whenever you have a very rapid rise in prices, there is always going to be a correction along the way. But India will definitely surpass the previous highs that we have seen and I believe that you are going to see better prices going forward. But there will be corrections along the way and we got to remember that and tolerate these kinds of corrections.
We like the companies we have invested in, but the market has performed very well. I don’t see us adding necessarily, but certainly not subtracting. So, we want to hold what we have in India.
Mark Mobius, Founder, Mobius Capital
If volume growth continues for auto companies then auto ancillary stocks could do well. We do have defensives like FMCG, IT, pharma in the portfolio but larger tilt is towards domestic cyclicals where we haven’t seen activities coming back to levels and that’s where we are betting on. Therefore, we expect that over the next few months we should see complete recovery in activity levels in that domain and that should help stocks perform better. We have been positive on midcap cement companies and specialty chemicals.
Harsha Upadhyaya, CIO-Equity, Kotak Mutual Fund
Post Diwali we have seen good enquiry level and good booking level as well that is why manufacturers are very confident about December (sales). The demand in auto sector is very closely correlated with the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita income growth. Automobile is a discretionary purchase being a high-value item in our country. There the sentiment also plays a large role and the sentiment today depends entirely on the COVID situation. That is why because of uncertainty both on the COVID front and also regarding how the different sectors of the economy or the fundamentals will move, manufacturers in auto industry are a little hesitant to give a forward guidance.
Shashank Srivastava, ED-Marketing and Sales, Maruti Suzuki
Expect Nifty to hit 14,100-14,200 if 13,800 is taken out. 13,500-13,800 is the near-term target on the Nifty. I see medium-term momentum in auto names and expect 32,600 on Nifty Bank as momentum continues. 12,470 is the key support for the Nifty and the short-term weakness will be limited to this level.
Laurence Balanco of CLSA
Truck segment demand coming back due to movement of cement and steel, but the growth is yet to be seen in the bus segment. The growth is seen in intermediate commercial vehicles and it continues to be there and on the other side the growth is also coming in from tipper segment, both in road sector and mining activity. Operators will be looking to replace some old vehicles with BS-VI vehicles. The cost of ownership is lower for BS-VI vehicles.
Anuj Kathuria, COO, Ashok Leyland
The company is evaluating 5-10 deals at any point of time. As and when we find a fit and reach a definitive agreement, we will come back.
March quarter, we ended 2.5 percent of our sales going through online. Right now we are heading towards 5-6 percent of sales. We are seeing the strong momentum continue.
Sunil D'Souza, MD and CEO, Tata Consumer
Stocks that are trading below cash on balance sheet, good companies with no history of either making a loss are trading below the cash on the balance sheet and this is where I think the next value picking opportunity is going to be based on valuations, some industrial plays which are just very cheap.
Mukul Kochhar, Co-head of Equities, Investec Cap Services.
Demand is going to be extremely strong going into FY21 for the whole year. We are doing quite well and going forward also traction from exports both from North America and Europe are good. Class 8 trucks continue to do well and we feel that in 2021, the Class 8 trucks are going to be extremely doing well. Till June we have the visibility and that is completely full.
Naresh Jalan, MD, Ramkrishna Forgings
We have given guidance of about Rs 10,000 crore in FY21, which already the figure has been achieved and some orders are also expected. We received fresh orders of Rs 6,300 crore till October which was already informed to the exchanges and investors. In the month of November, about Rs 3,900 crore has been received which means the total order accretion for FY21 up to first 8 months is about Rs 10,232 crore. The payment cycle has improved substantially and clients are making payments on time. Payment issues in Andhra Pradesh is also getting resolved.
YD Murthy, EVP-Finance, NCC
We see demand coming back in a big way in the mid-income segment post lockdown. DLF launched these 90 premium apartment priced between Rs 3 crore and Rs 5 crore each and all sold out on day one. Part of it may have been the pent-up demand during the lockdown, but it does look like that the demand, not only for mid-income housing but also for premium housing is coming back and we are now looking at launching products across different income segments.
Ashok Tyagi, Whole Time Director, DLF
Q3FY21 volume will be about 8-10 percent better than last year Q3. The demand is coming maximum from tier-II cities and by individual houses. The price margins will be more or less intact.
There is no chance, we are not even looking at buying India Cements, not even thinking about it, we don’t have any share and all these rumours are meaningless.
HM Bangur, MD, Shree Cement
FY21 should be good if we see demand sustain in Q4. We have two segments – busses and cargo vehicles. In the bus segment about 80-85 percent are school busses, but no sales happening there as schools are closed. However, in the truck segment we are improving month on month. We are also focusing on vehicles like ambulance, troop carrier for defence, staff busses and tourism busses.
Gopal Bansal, Whole-Time Director & CFO, SML ISUZU
We are expanding our presence in the capital cities of the eastern part of India is very important and we are very thankful for Ambuja Neotia to give us an opportunity to also bring Taj to a city like Patna. We are very excited and we carefully select partners and we are very proud and happy to have Ambuja Neotia as a very important strategic partner which is providing us a platform for growth of our brands in future.
Puneet Chhatwal, MD and CEO, IHCL
The cotton arrivals this year are looking to be good, everyday there is arrival of around 2.5 lakh bales and this year we are expecting up to 30th November arrival will be 85- 90 lakh bales which will be compared to last year 55 lakh bales so crop is going to be good. Cotton price has gone up from Rs 38,000 to 41,500, also raw cotton rates has also gone up. There is increase of Rs 1,000 in raw cotton price so farmers are very eager to sell. There is no demand in the exports, since Indian cotton price has increase 10 percent, due to this increase of price export parity is not there.
Atul Ganatra, President, Cotton Association of India
The government and the overall ‘Atmanirbhar’ initiative is trying to make local industry and manufacturing competitive with the global players, which is a welcome initiative. We are sticking to the guidance we gave when we announced Q2 numbers, so debt is in a downward trend and we expect that by March ’21 our net debt will be similar to what we had in March ’20 before the COVID impact. Margins are still evolving because supply chain is not fully stabilized because of various disruptions on and off because there is a second outbreak (of COVID) in Europe which is impacting availability of labour to some extent and which is putting pressure on volumes and hence related inefficiencies, but we should be able to show an improving trend QoQ sequentially in Q3 and Q4.
T Srinivasan, Group CFO, Varroc Engineering
UPL is by far the largest player and to continue to grow at 10-12 percent which we target, we have to grow $ 500 million a year in revenues. We have created a network of partnerships in India around the world to continue to supply us products so we can continue to grow. We were a bit anxious during the pandemic like all other corporates and we had raised a series of capital debt in the international market.
Jai Shroff, Global CEO, UPL
(Edited by : Abhishek Jha)
First Published: IST