D-Street week ahead: Russia-Ukraine war, crude oil, COVID, FII flow to be on investors' radar

With major central bank meetings now behind, Dalal Street investors' focus is likely to return to updates on the Russia-Ukraine war and the coronavirus situation in China in the absence of domestic cues. Any fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the flow of institutional investors' money will continue to be on investors' radar.

A follow-on public offer (FPO) by Ruchi Soya will be watched closely.

Last week, headline indices Sensex and Nifty50 surged around four percent each amid gains across most sectors led by financial, auto and consumer shares -- a second straight week of gains. The Sensex added 2,313.6 points to end the holiday-truncated week at 57,863.9 and the Nifty50 rose 656.6 points to 17,287.1 -- both one-month closing highs.

Broader markets also strengthened. The Nifty Midcap 100 rose 2.7 percent and its smallcap counterpart 1.2 percent.

Optimism around peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil easing further from 14-year highs and in-line central bank action supported investor sentiment.

The Nifty Financial Services and Nifty Auto were the top gainers among NSE's sectoral indices, clocking weekly gains of six percent each. The Nifty Bank finished the week 5.4 percent higher -- its biggest weekly gain in two months.

The Nifty Metal was the only sectoral index to slip into the red, down 0.1 percent. As many as 45 stocks in the Nifty50 pack saw weekly gains.

Some 340 scrips on the Nifty 500 -- the exchange's broadest index -- finished above the flatline.

The recent rebound has certainly eased some pressure in the market though sustainability of the gains on headline indices will largely depend on global cues, said Ajit Mishra, VP Research at Religare Broking. "Any news of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war and deterioration of the COVID situation in China could again dent the sentiment. We suggest maintaining a positive yet cautious approach and focusing on overnight risk management," he said.

Mishra believes the Nifty50 has the potential to test 17,,500-17,700 levels and sees a cushion at 16,800-17,000 in case of a dip.

Ruchi Soya's FPO worth up to Rs 4,300 crore will hit the Street on Thursday, March 24. The issue will close on March 28.

Investors will be able to bid for shares in a price band of Rs 615-650 in multiples of 21.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net purchased Indian shares worth Rs 1,685.9 crore last week, according to provisional exchange data. Net buys by domestic institutional investors (DIIs) stood at Rs 1,291 crore.