In an interview with CNBC-TV18 from the sidelines of the CNBC-TV18 India Business Leaders Award 2020, Ramesh Damani, Member, BSE, outlined his view on the market.
Q: It was a rough week for the market last week.
A: It has been one of those weeks that you remember in the history, global sell-off, this what a pandemic looks like. I think a long 11 years bull market that we had in the US may be kind of topping out so there is a cocktail of factors that are contributing to this global sell-off. No doubt this Coronavirus is number one but there is a cocktail of factors.
Q: Do you think this is just a passing problem or do you think we actually peaked off for some time now?
A: I always like to be optimistic, I am a congenital bull out there but I think the cocktail of factors is not just the Coronavirus in which case, of course, it would pass in a quarter or two. You might also be meeting the end of the global bull market that started after the global financial crisis. I would keep an eye on that I am not going to stick my neck out and say the global bull market is over but there are some indications that there is froth in the market.
A bull market is there to trap everyone that is the function when they end they trap everyone. No one is allowed to take their money and exit. So the way the market is fallen four days in the row, 4000 points on the Dow Jones suggest that a lot of bulls there have been trapped.
Q: Do you think investors will keep the faith, should they keep the faith? We have just begun our SIP culture.
A: I think they should keep the faith because even bear markets end. The market really for the midcap and medium cap stocks they are substantially down anyway and they have barely risen in this rally. So yields are good in a lot of these cases so I think maybe we will get subpar returns for another year, but then the market will pick up.
Q: I am sure a lot of your own relatives and friends have asked you this question, are you buying the fear or is it still a falling knife?
A: We always tend to buy, we are not traders in that sense. We are looking as investors, so we try and look for great businesses that are available at good valuations. If you look at some of the stocks, already from a low base they are down 10 percent, 15 percent in the last two days. So there seems to be unusual fear out there.
The Dow was down 4000 points in four days. So, I think if you find value, you should definitely go out and buy it. But I do not think
Q: IBLA is a big day, it is a shining day, it is a day we are celebrating success. Leave us with a positive thought.
A: Most positive thought I can give you, when I was a student in America, the Dow was 1000 and today it is 25000. When I came back and started my career here, it was 800 and today it is closer to 40000.
So, the long term arc of the bull market is always higher. So, I think despite what we are seeing right now, I am very confident that three or five years from now, we will be at far higher levels than we are now.