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Economy

Nifty could touch 13,600 in the medium term; investors need to join the rally, says Atul Suri of Marathon Trends

Updated : May 29, 2019 01:09 PM IST

Indian bond yields could move back to levels of 6.20 percent.

Sectors that have not done well for the last ten years are doing well.

In the medium term, the Nifty can touch 13,600 which is about 14 percent upside from the present, and the investors need to log in and join the rally, says Atul Suri, CEO of Marathon Trends PMS.

“If things get bad because of global cues or trade war, the Nifty could come to 11,400 levels, which is the gap that the market has and markets often come back to fill these gaps,” he said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.

According to Suri, a sustainable Nifty rally is impossible without the performance of the Nifty Bank. “When you don’t have the Bank Nifty breaking out or is being relatively weaker, you find that all Nifty rallies are failures or susceptible to failure,” he noted.

“On a risk-reward ratio, you are talking about 14 percent upside and a 4 percent downside, which is more than 1:3 and it is a risk-reward taking. So I am personally bullish and fully invested. It would be interesting times,” he said.

The other interesting space in the next three months will be bond yields. Indian bond yields could move back to levels of 6.20 percent and that could be a very big trigger for banking and the overall space, he pointed out.

The last three months have seen a sectorial shift in the market. Sectors that have not done well for the last ten years are doing well. “If you take last three months, the best performing sectors with 20 percent upmove are sectors which have not done well for a decade like capital goods. The capital goods index has still not taken out the 2008 top and is still 4 percent lower than that, but is up 20 percent in the last 3 months. Similarly, real estate sector is up 20-22 percent. PSU bank is another space which has been a favourite and all short sellers have done very well,” he said.

When asked what he would bet on now, he said he would like to stay at the top because it is a hope trade. “If it works out it would be good but if the hope trade does not work out then one does not want to be stuck in poor quality. So it is best to play the leaders,” Suri opined.

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