Economy

Market Outlook: Liquidity worries, Q2 results to chart stock market's course

Updated : October 22, 2018 07:14 AM IST

The liquidity availability to the sector has become a concern after the default by some of the IL&FS Group companies.

Second-quarter earnings result season, combined with the direction of foreign fund flows and the liquidity situation of the NBFC (non-banking financial companies) sector are expected to determine the trajectory of Indian stock market indices during the upcoming week.

In addition, the price of global crude oil and the rupee-US dollar matrix will also be other major market themes during the period.

"Markets next week would again focus on the developments in the liquidity situation of the NBFCs, HFCs (housing finance companies)," Devendra Nevgi, Founder and Principal Partner, Delta Global Partners, told IANS.

The liquidity availability to the sector has become a concern after the default by some of the IL&FS Group companies.

Last Friday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) came out with new measures to increase the liquidity flow to NBFCs and HFCs.

"The ongoing turmoil led by a financial crunch in the domestic economy, global risk-off and worries over upcoming elections are likely to maintain their burden in the equity market," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

"At the same time, it is possible that a good portion of these risk factors have been digested by the market and the upcoming impacts will depend on developments like stability in global bond yield and the trade war."

In terms of quarterly results, companies like Adani Ports, Ambuja Cements, TVS Motor, Bajaj Auto, Wipro, Bharti Airtel, Biocon, Maruti Suzuki, Yes Bank, Dr Reddys Labs, ICICI Bank and ITC are expected to announce their Q2 earnings next week.

"The sentiment would be driven by the moves in the NBFC and HFC stocks and earnings of Asian Paints, Bajaj Group of companies, Bharti Airtel, etc., which are due next week," Nevgi said.

Apart from the Q2 results, the direction of flow of foreign funds assumes significance as outflows from the beginning of October have crossed the highest level in the last 12 months.

As per data complied from the stock exchanges, in just 13 trading sessions from October 1 onwards, foreign investors have sold stocks worth around Rs 19,500 crore.

The weekly provisional figures showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold scrips worth Rs 1,576.01 crore.

Besides, the rupee's strength against the US dollar and global crude oil prices will be closely followed by investors.

In the previous week, a decline in crude oil prices to below $80 per barrel and a stable rupee in a range of 73 to a US dollar helped buoy investor sentiments.

The Indian rupee last week closed at Rs 73.32 to a dollar, strengthening by 24 paise from its previous week's close of 73.56.

"Lower oil prices and weakness in the US Dollar Index can offset the weakness in local stocks and keep the rupee in a range for the next week," Anindya Banerjee, Deputy Vice President for Currency and Interest Rates with Kotak Securities, told IANS.

"... We can expect range-bound trading in the pair for the next week -- between 73 and 74 levels on spot."

On the technical charts, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty50 remains in an intermediate downtrend.

"Technically, with the Nifty again displaying weakness after the pullback rally seen in the previous week, the intermediate trend of the index remains down," HDFC Securities' Retail Research Head Deepak Jasani told IANS.

"The downtrend is likely to continue early next week once the immediate support of 10,250 points is broken. Crucial resistances to watch on the upside are at 10,436-10,526 points."

Last week, mixed corporate earnings and fears of a slowdown in global economic growth, pulled the two main indices of the Indian stock market lower.

Consequently, on a weekly basis, the S&P Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex closed at 34,315.63 points, down by 417.95 points or 1.20 per cent from its previous close.

Similarly, the wider Nifty50 of the NSE edged-lower. It closed at 10,303.55 points, down 168.95 points or 1.61 per cent from the previous week's close.

Market Outlook: Liquidity worries, Q2 results to chart stock market's course

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