Indian bonds may be worst hit if recession grips US

US recession risks are reverberating across the emerging Asian debt complex and nowhere is this more apparent than in Indian sovereign bonds.

Rupee debt has proven to be the most sensitive to an inversion of the US curve in the past and this time is unlikely to be different, according to a Bloomberg study which analyzed four episodes dating back to 2005. In each instance, India’s benchmark yields climbed an average 11 basis points in the 10 days before longer-term US rates fell below those on shorter-dated maturities.

The threat of a US downturn is the latest risk confronting Indian bonds after a weakening rupee and accelerating inflation propelled benchmark yields to the highest in over two years in June. A slowdown in the world’s biggest economy may exacerbate the pressure from outflows, after global funds sold the notes for five months through June.